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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Horgad who wrote (108330)	11/7/2014 8:44:24 PM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 219671

but I am not sure that it is a forgone conclusion. A>Of course your right, it is not a certainty, but the probability of NG as a bridge to somewhere else is a strong probability competitive advantages accrue to them that understand the risk reward. Right now NG is a most logical pathway. IMO oil demand will peak, and NG/NGLs will begin to take share in transportation. Other matrixes are working against oil as well, in fact there are too many to mention when one considers the counter programming already under way. Its been stated in a DOE report some 8 years ago which calculated the effect of LED as removing multiple nuclear and coal fired plants from the picture altogether...these changes are still impeded by systemic inertia, but some of this inertia is clearing and more clearing will come. Put it this way... B> All of these oil producing states who have taken their largest Customer for granted, and made budgets based on furthering some incremental extortion....those plans have already collapsed whether they realize it or not. Customers have long memories, being on the wrong side of your customer s options in a market economy.....is a bad idea for any business. Be you a country NOC, or a company colluding to undermine customers, it is bad for business, no matter the industry. NG was 1/2 the price of Gasoline for like a decade in the 70s and seems like things are re balancing now with oil falling. A. This is true as well, but no one understood the scope of our reserves at that time. Today I read that we should be talking in trillions of BOE, not billions. NG supplies throughout CA.USA & Mexico....essentially removes the need for higher cost imports. As with everything, all prices remain artifacts.... Besides they are working on processes to convert NG into gasoline which will probably be way more efficient than changing all the cars and pumps across country to be able to deal with bulky NG instead of liquid fuel. A.Trucking fleets, metro regional delivery fleets, disposal companies are the likely sources to encourage this move as they have the most to gain. Once the transport industry measures the differential prices, this becomes a demand equation, whether or not the processes are close enough to calculate the switch to some conversion process which leverages existing infrastructure is also problematic as claims and doing are two different animals. Transportation companies have an immediate need to get cost advantages...even if routes are limited, competitive advantages produce bottom line incremental gains for them that possess them. A feature, every quarterly planner dreams about having. Meaning the cars might not change much just the source of the fuel. In the future, the NG price + cost to convert to liquid fuel and the price of petroleum based fuel will likely be closely correlated. A. or a wide range of other potentials could seize the day.