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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blankmind who wrote (3749)	12/16/1997 2:37:00 PM
From: Zebra 365	Respond to of 23519

I'm no CPA, but this guess is from a recent private communication. <<<I don't see Viagra out until June (based on prior "priority reviews"), and PFE will keep every bit of data locked up til the last minute, as they know a head-to-head comparison will put MUSE in front. Also, Vivus is working on a Prazosin + Alprostadil mixture for MUSE, which will probably increase efficacy without increasing side effects, but I don't know if that is even in Phase II yet. The only bright side could be if they were very conservative about the lost product revenues (ie. overestimated it) for Q4, after all, "25%" has to be a rough guess. Still they should expense as much of the new facility costs as as the IRS will allow for tax purposes and that will increase G&A expenses, as well as payroll to produce product that cannot be shipped (from the new facility). Therefor, I see Q4 earnings somewhere between $0.15 and 0.25. Still about $1.00 for 1997, which is not bad for an $11 stock. On the other hand they will be building an inventory of product that will be able to be shipped (and revenues recognized) immediately on MCA approval of the new facility. So Q1 98 revenues could surge, making for a happy April, with FDA approval pending at that time. Realistically, I therefore don't expect to get whole on this until April (avg cost in at $24.70/ share).>>> Cheers Zebra