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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3976)	12/16/1997 6:19:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4571

Subject: Merrill Mentions DDIM Date: Tue, Dec 16, 1997 4:37 PM From: Sirchmo Message-id: <19971216163700.LAA09970@ladder01.news.aol.com> I stated not too long ago (on the SEEC board) that main stream Wall Street continues to fail to recognize y2k as a serious problem. It certainly has not been factored into market prices as Asia's problems have been. And the truly golden opportunities for companies such as SEEC (and DDIM) are not factored into their stock prices either. But now I see Merrill Lynch has stepped forward with the following and things could begin to change rather rapidly: (Emphasis added) From the Merrill Lynch Forum Call it what you will: a bug, a quirk, a challenge or a crisis. But don't call it trivial. The Year 2000 computer problem is now one of the most important issues facing businesses, governments and other institutions worldwide. When the millennium arrives, many computer systems and global networks will fail because of an inability to properly interpret dates beyond 1999. Although the problem might sound insignificant, its implications are extremely serious and widespread. Leading experts estimate that averting a "Millennium shutdown" could cost up to $600 billion worldwide -- earning the so-called Millennium Bug a position among history's most expensive "disasters." Many institutions -- including Merrill Lynch -- are fully aware of the problem and well into the process of addressing it. Journalists are also now alerting broader audiences to the scope and significance of the issue. However, most institutions remain unprepared. Industry experts estimate that only 33% of U.S. businesses and federal agencies have started work on the problem. International surveys suggest the rest of the world is even further behind. According to a recent U.K. study, for example, fewer than one in five businesses have acted on the problem. Without proper attention, the consequences of the Year 2000 problem will be costly and disruptive. Thousands of computers, running everything from telephone networks to financial markets, are threatened with failure. Even institutions that have fixed their own internal problem will feel the ripple effects from problems occurring externally. The Merrill Lynch Forum offers this paper because we continue to believe business and government leaders globally do not fully appreciate the dilemma facing them. With such substantial implications, the Year 2000 problem is a technical issue that simply cannot remain the province of technologists; it demands the attention of CEOs, senior public policy makers and heads of other institutions around the world. The Bottom Line The Millennium Challenge is likely to be the single biggest project ever undertaken by information technology organizations. The Gartner Group -- a leading IT research firm in the U.S. -- estimates that a midsize organization will require several hundred person-years of programmer time to fully correct the problem. Some large organizations may need as much as 1,000 person-years. The sheer physical magnitude of the effort, however, is dwarfed by the expense of correcting the problem. Gartner Group estimates that the Year 2000 bug will cost between $400 billion and $600 billion to fix worldwide. The final cost of the Millennium Challenge, however, may well reach $1 trillion. The reason for this is that most estimates only incorporate the direct cost of becoming "Year 2000 compliant." Little attention is paid to the costs associated with project management, delayed upgrades, diverted resources and potential litigation. What this means for specific institutions will vary depending on their size, industry and level of technological saturation. There is, however, an accepted guideline published by Data Dimensions -- an innovative provider of Millennium-related services. According to Data Dimensions, the full cost for addressing the Year 2000 will likely represent 20%-30% of an organization's total IT spending between 1997 and 2000. Over time, the interaction of supply and demand will drive costs even higher. With rising demand and a limited number of qualified computer programmers, the price to fix the Year 2000 problem is growing rapidly. Gartner Group, which tracks cost per line of corrected computer code, has seen a 25% growth in price over the past three years. They expect this trend to accelerate as more organizations rush to implement a solution. The clock is ticking -- literally -- to address the Millennium Challenge. Note: Thanks to Tokyo Mex on the Topro board for the above find. For the complete write up see TM's first post of 12-15 and click to the web site.