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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jyoti sharma who wrote (7614)	12/16/1997 4:33:00 PM
From: rick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13565

To All, CNBC guest Joseph Stiglitz, World Bank Chief Economist, just returned from Korea, said he was very impressed with their commitment and actions on their reform, said his feeling on Asia is that the current crisis will turn around in the not to distant future.

To: Jyoti sharma who wrote (7614)	12/16/1997 5:39:00 PM
From: Frank Chen	Respond to of 13565

Jyoti, I know their competitors are hurting. You can imagine what's going on when INTC is reshuffling their personnel from the Rio Rancho flash fab (all at the same time Pentium Fab was expending), they're losing money. AMD is pushing hard on some low voltage new product, but their flash business is basically flat on revenue, or even down. ACTL and MCHP are too small to be really having an impact on ATML's earning picture. Interestingly, without the downgrade, I think ATML could go up with the rest of the tech today in this year end reorganizing/rolling of fund portfolio. So, in summary, the competitors are hurting. If ATML holds the ground on earning and revenue this quarter, longer term prospect is very bright. They have new fab fully in place next 2 quarters. The Asian companies are going to be a little late in this coming cycle even if they got past the money crunch and built new fabs. In longer term, U.S. semi industry is going to come out of this Asian flu as winner because they have the capital to build fab before the curve pick up. In ATML's case, longer term is better than the rest of the industry. They have the fab in place already when this crisis is over (I don't think it's going to last more than 1 year). They're always the low-price leader in flash. If they execute well in U.S., Europe and Great China, it will be a great year for them. Europe is starting off the bottom now, that can compensate some of the Japanese business. They got to be very careful in the hedging of Japanese Yen. However, short-term (1-4 month), just as I said, I would be very very cautious. The downturn is not over yet. I would hold on the purse until I see solid data on earning in Jan. If it meets the estimates, then the uptrend will start itself, that's the time to buy. It's also easier then predicting the bottom and jump in too early. Good luck! Frank