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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (108428)	11/13/2014 4:24:40 PM
From: clochard	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 218475

$35 a gallon? Maybe here in Britain.

To: ggersh who wrote (108428)	11/13/2014 10:59:48 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218475

Right now the important drivers are: All the Feedback Loops described Decision of oil exporters to produce and export Natural gas and refined products US can't afford expensive imported oil OPEC don't have the luxury of fixing prices and swing them as they please. You need to look at the 4 components of price of oil. Write down all that goes into the formation of the price of an barrel of oil Then you write down all that affect the demand of oil Add all geo-political and the plain political issues that move oil prices Feedback loops that act when price go up or when price goes down All are working in real time. 24/7 1. Write down all that goes into the formation of the price of an barrel of oil These real costs depending on the source (in shore offshore, deep water, shale etc) plus price-fixing cartel OPEC agreement on price level. Decision of oil exporters to produce and export Natural gas and refined products 2. Then you write down all that affect the demand of oil Income of the consumer, taxation on oil products, state of the economy and of course the cost of the crude Subsidies to the consumer. Demand replacement: Solar wind, ethanol 3. Add all geo-political and the plain political issues that move oil prices Trouble in oil producing regions: real, perceived or fabricated. Populist government use of oil for political gains, manipulation by governments Government use of oil company as national political tool Environmental laws. Force fed alternatives. Imposition of laws for more efficient vehicles 4. Feedback loops that act when price go up or when price goes down. Take into account all that goes in 1. to 4. and feed back to crude oil Price goes up lower consumption and make expensive sources economic viable. New technologies lower costs of lifting expensive oil or extract more oil from exhausted fields The 99% middle class are being squeezed and have less money to burn gasoline, diesel or airtravel Demographics: Old people drive less and the biggest consumer countries are getting old Younger people squeezed don't replace old consumers~ Change in the energy mix: more use of Natural gas, more use of LNG more use of ethanol, Right now the important drivers are: All the Feedback Loops describedDecision of oil exporters to produce and export Natural gas and refined productsUS can't afford expensive imported oilOPEC don't have the luxury of fixing prices and swing them as they please.