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Biotech / Medical : ImmunoGen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Mohilner who wrote (5551)	12/26/2014 2:06:52 PM
From: Gary Mohilner	Respond to of 5665

It's hard to say that IMGN's had a weak year purely based on investors knowing the recently released trial results where more positive results were expected, then what was presented. Sadly all the emphasis is being placed on what's happening with Kadcyla, and other developments are ignored. 2014 has truly been a terrible year from a stock price for IMGN, and far from a great one for me personally as I'm under treatment for leukemia, and will continue that treatment essentially for the rest of my life. Hopefully next year will prove far better for both of us. In February, if nothing changes, I'll go through stem cell transplantation. If all goes well I'll be home some time in March, and hopefully become stronger the remainder of the year. If things go well, by Summer I'll be able to resume a somewhat normal life, but my immune system probably won't be back to full strength until 2016. When I say my immune system, I really should clarify that it will be the donor's system that I'll be inheriting. As for IMGN, if you look at the pipeline, the growth in the number of partner licenses being taken, and earlier stage drug trial results I believe you'll reach the same conclusion I have. It's my belief the company is tremendously underpriced. I cannot say what will reverse the downward trend, but suspect that it won't be long before Biotest commits to a Phase III Trial and IMGN opts in to their drug. I believe that news will be viewed very positively as it will be IMGN's first opportunity to gain substantial sales revenue, not just royalty income. Please don't get me wrong, as both use of Kadcyla grows and other partnered drugs gain approval, royalty and milestone growth can be tremendous. Owned or partly owned drugs however offer tremendous revenue potential. It may be awhile before IMGN has one of it's own drugs entering a Phase III Trial, but opting into Biotest's drug, and perhaps later taking a greater interest in one of SNY's drugs may wake investors about the potential of the company. The truth is, as I'm learning from my experience with leukemia, the science is not stagnant, but it's also not obsoleted by new development. Some of the drugs I've been treated with for the leukemia date back decades, others haven't yet actually been approved for my specific form of the disease, Philadelphia positive Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia. I've already been told that should I come out of remission after a stem cell transplant I may benefit from drugs based on T-cells which once again haven't been approved for my form of cancer. From what I've seen they haven't been formally tried with it yet. I believe that the key to drug development is achieving that initial approval for any drug. Certainly after that time you work to expand the label. My point is that their are many Doctor's everywhere who are willing to try all the tools in their handbag, not just those approved for a specific disease, if the tools they have for that disease don't appear to be working that well. Kadcyla in the recently reported trial only did as well as the SOC in treating patients. The market viewed that as terrible news based on the stock price. Certainly it wasn't good as expected, but I believe the truth is, it's still a better choice than the SOC. Why? Because the SOC, Herceptin plus Chemo, generally has side effects that are worse than those from Kadcyla administered alone. Why would anyone choose the current SOC when they could have a higher quality of life with Kadcyla, cost and insurance coverage must be the answer. When the European approval agency NICE wants a price reduction before they'll approve Kadcyla you know that cost, not efficacy, is a major consideration. It's my belief that Roche could profit far more from Kadcyla if it made price adjustments that were intended to make it more cost competitive. I'm not suggesting to bring it down to the price of Herceptin, which is the key ingredient in making it. But the combined cost of administering both Herceptin and Chemo has to be substantially higher than the cost of administering Kadcyla alone. If the additional cost of administration were added to the cost of Herceptin, plus perhaps a small addition for the improvement in quality of life, I believe that Kadcyla would be priced where Insurance Companies would accept it, and even the FDA would approve it on the quality of life basis. Certainly all these things take time, but it's still my belief that in time Kadcyla sales will be greater than the $6 billion a year Herceptin currently sells. I know this market will also be effected by Herceptin - SC, and by generic Herceptin, so the competition could get interesting, but quality of life is a major issue once approval on that basis occurs, and the competition thus far doesn't offer the improved quality of life, even if it's equally effective. Gary