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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (3873)	12/16/1997 4:54:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

Gene, I think you've stated a much better strategy than I've been following. i.e. Establish buy/sell targets, then stick to them. i.e. if the strategy calls for selling at PSR=3.5, then do so (as soon as the momentum stops?). Sam, Buying 64 1Mb chips rather than 1 64Mb chip for new applications is a losing proposition in terms of cost, space, power, heat dissipation, speed, reliability and probably numerous other factors. Lenny, When I do MTSN, I'll post it on that thread. General, re killer application: I suspect that there are many rather than just 1. And I suspect that they'll continue to evolve into ever more demanding applications from a "chip" perspective. e.g. - for us, various Financial sites. Java Charting seems to suck up lots of power.; Games for another sector; Gardening/Food sites for my sister/wife, etc. (Note These are 2 different, unrelated people).<g> Email evolutions to better support Voice, Video, Digital Cameras, etc. Teri, I believe that with each round at the "no limit" poker game, you see fewer players spending more $ to stay in business. This has been especially true in DRAM this year. Several companies have already abandoned the sector or at least migrated DRAM capacity to other types of chips. Overall, Capex has been increasing. If you're a bull, then you know it will continue. If you're a bear, then you know that a world wide recession will cause demand to fall off a cliff. For the first time in a ling time, I'm firmly on the fence. I don't have any strong views one way or the other for the short to mid term. Ian.

To: Clarksterh who wrote (3873)	12/17/1997 9:50:00 AM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Clark; Microns blended average ASP was $3.60 for a 16 meg die in the most recent quarter. This was down 44% from $6.50 in the prior quarter, and 58% from $8.25 the preceeding quarter. Micron enjoys a 10 to 15% price premium at major box OEMs (Compaq & Dell). Micron is currently at .3 micron process technology with fewer masking steps than any other DRAM supplier. Hence, the smallest 16 meg SDRAM in the world (70% of parts next quarter)! Micron broke- even at $3.60 ASP's. Currently, every $.01 cent decline in 16 meg ASP is shaving $.01 in MU fiscal 98 eps. Current 16 meg ASPs are at $2.5 to $3.20 for SDRAM. Hence, at prevailing prices MU is already losing money with a 15% premium over all other DRAM suppliers. Clark; would you buy bonds of Fabs operating at a loss to fund .25 Micron capacity, hence, doubling the supply of SDRAM at todays and possibly lower prices? What interest rate would you accept? My point is, that financing for this activity is drying up! Orders for equipment will be pushed out at the very least and probably canciled. Regards, Jay