>>>your seeming reliance on technical analysis<<<
That's odd...I don't recall ever having mentioned TA on this thread in the past several weeks, if at all. Let's see, first Paul seems to believe I made all sorts of uncanny precise trades over the past year, and now you believe I'm a TA-fan...amazing!
>>>Unlike you, I am an educated man so I know that my background easily trumps yours when it comes to investing.<<<
LOL! Oh really? Well I'm up for a challenge...so prove it. I'm still waiting for you to offer counter-argument to my two posts regarding rival technology: ASND vs CSCO. As anonymous as you, I, and any other person on SI is, we can each easily claim anything -- so let's go by what these forums were designed to nurture: discussion. So far I have been the only one to offer any argument on the topic. You have scored a flat zero for content...ok, so maybe you get a couple biscuits for entertainment -- bravo! ;o)
>>>So I reject your boob bait, bubba<<<
Ha! I knew it...then again, as many times as you've gotten burned, I don't blame you for avoiding the fire.
>>>As for your bet, you seem to believe it's a certainty that ASND will recover to old highs. Iomegans and Forester partisans have been yelling about similar for a far longer duration than 9 months. A spectacular rise is not a given and not worth the extreme risk.<<<
No, I never said "old highs". I believe that it is extremely likely, that were two investors to put the same sum into CSCO (80) and ASND (25), ASND will likely earn 100% return on the money, long before CSCO would. I believe that scenario will play out before Summer. I would never hold ASND long term, waiting for any price above 50 because its multiple would become excessive. 50 is my target for ASND. I believe the risk/reward ratio is definately in favor of a significant return in 6 months...beyond anything CSCO could acheive, providing CSCO does not fall.
Ironic that you bring up IOM. This thread reminds me of the IOM board at the Fool last year. They thought the company was unstoppable, it was growing at a torrid pace, consistently blowing away estimates, a virtual monopoly in its market, excellent fundamentals, etc. Hell, look at the competition...pathetic. This company had it made...or so they thought. The Motley Fool, although very prudent to have invested in the company shortly following its IPO, gave back a tremendous amount of its gains, thanks to its inflexible stubborn long-term philosophy. It ignored valuation, and rode IOM up to the mid-50s and right back down all the way to the mid-teens, holding tight the whole way. The Fool should have sold in pieces on the way up over 30, and repurchased far more when the stock crashed below 20.
>>>Without a buyer, ASND will likely remain the same ol' Cisco roadkill it is today.<<<
Explain to me how ASND is possibly CSCO "roadkill"? ASND competes in RA/FR/ISDN/ATM and to a small degree, routers. The company is focused on Internet/telco networking. Out of the 5 main segments I named, ASND is #1 in 3 of them (COMS had higher RA market share in Q3 only, while the MAX TNT wasn't shipping to Europe). In ATM ASND is quickly gaining ground (23% as of Q3). Its routers are gaining momentum, having won orders from UUNET (a long-time customer of just CSCO routers) this Fall. ASND competes to no significant degree in any other areas against CSCO...so with all this in mind, where is the roadkill?
Perhaps you mean market *perception*...unfortunately for ASND, much of the market still looks at ASND as a RA company, which just hasn't been the case over the last year. And perception has a huge impact on the way a stock is treated. Example: NOVL's NetWare is acknowledged over and over again to be superior to MSFT NT, yet the stock gets tore up on the perception that NT is going to steamroll NetWare. NT still has yet to be installed on 1/2 the base that Unix is, and Unix is behind NetWare.
>>>That includes knowing what I do not need to know, i.e., I need not know how to design a microprocessor to invest in Intel.<<<
You don't need to know how to build a router or switch, or install a network. But if you understand the trends of the technology and can foresee the market environment ahead of time, you can greatly improve your % returns by investing accordingly.
>>>Just how long is a trader willing to stay trapped?<<<
I'm not trading ASND, I invested in it with a target in mind. I plan to sell at $50 or 12/98...whichever comes first. That's a 50% return, and I will be well-pleased.
The short position I'm considering in CSCO, not that would be a position trade.
Of course, I'm also considering rolling 1/2 of my profit from the CSCO shares into a long-term AMAT position -- looking for a 100% return in 1998 (considering AMAT's beaten down condition, I believe that's reasonable), once the semis turn around and rotate back into favor.
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