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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (2781)	12/16/1997 7:03:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78599

Allen Re: consumer finance I just wanted to make sure you had seen this post: exchange2000.com Re: loan quality, you can look up ratings on the securitized loans such as Green Tree's. Go to Yahoo Quote, and search GNT news - the news periodically updates the new ratings by various credit rating companies. They take into account an awful lot in coming up with their ratings. Mike

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (2781)	12/16/1997 10:14:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78599

Allen Furlan: re: GNT and loans: For me, it is not possible to analyze the quality of the loans. And it seems the loans are always being downgraded after the stock declines or upgraded after the stocks hit new highs -g-. My assumption is this: it is not possible nor necessary for value investors to "truly understand the business" before investing in a particular company. One tries of course, but key variables like management, new situations (like WHX purchase of H&H), always seem to be constraints or boundary issues. Therefore, to overcome this: 1) One looks for a margin of safety. With GNT you have a strong niche business employing more than 3000 people, whose special expertise is the growing mobile home market; 2) One buys a package of these finance companies (maybe) and is well diversified (certainly) in holding stocks in other industries; 3) One allows the time for the current situation to resolve itself. They might earn 200M this year or maybe 300M in the next couple- even if they switched to more conservative accounting practices. This will provide a very good relative pe IMO. We shall have to wait and see. Today, I've added to my position in GNT. Paul Senior