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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (186749)	11/29/2014 9:52:46 AM
From: quehubo	1 Recommendation Recommended By CommanderCricket Respond to of 206338

I dont see why not. The NG drill rate looks like a response to the spike in prices. Oil prices have been a bit more stable around $100 or so. With the Saudi actions I cant imagine the activity will be funded at the levels it has been. I think this event may offer a good opportunity into a period 18-24 months from now, barring any major global economic slowdown. One thing you can be certain of is cheap nat gas in the USA is going to have a demand response. Coal generation is going to continue declining with a step change down in 2015/16. The froth of activity working towards $100 oil will be washed away, and investors will be thinking of ?$50 oil stress tests maybe $75 average. I don't know how it will work out. Cheaper oil will force many producers to reduce reinvestment while cash is used to keep the masses at bay. Being 100% out of energy was not a option for me because I know one event can drive the market much higher or lower. Iraqi or Iranian export terminals blown apart or economic panic, are what I figured. Saudia Arabia wielding what little weapon it has at this time did not seem a possibility. I dont see excess stock piles of oil sitting around. In any event I have much more patience than a decade ago. It may be a tough year or two, who knows that happens next?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (186749)	11/29/2014 10:48:51 AM
From: MIRU	2 Recommendations Recommended By isopatch kidl Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206338

Ed, re Rig Count, back in '08 there was lots of compulsory gas drilling to hold leases so rig count was kind of artificial. Also oil drilling in shale was just taking off, so gas rig count decline was tempered by oil rig strength. That is not like today. There can't be much of a shift to gas drilling from oil since neither one is very profitable right now. So I would guess the crash we are in will evolve very rapidly, especially in the stock market which has quickly accepted a permadoom outlook. For bottom fishers in E&P the ever critical balance sheet/debt numbers will be big and the break-even points also. Deep offshore is over with as is the tuscaoosa marine shale with Bakken not far behind. I wish i had the data to really get down to cases, but maybe Permian is a refuge but I would appreciate any thoughts from the board. Tax selling and margin calls will make the next few weeks very interesting.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (186749)

11/30/2014 4:05:50 AM

From: elmatador

Respond to of 206338

oil has been its closest replacement as a store of value. “oil standard”, with Opec adjusting supply to limit oil’s volatility, has cohered ever since.

The dollar depreciated significantly in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, and its nadir overlapped closely with a speculative bubble in oil. Now, it is strengthening significantly.

That correlation with the dollar leads to a second clear correlation, with emerging market equities. They tend to outperform when the dollar is weakening (as in the years leading up to 2008), and to underperform when the dollar grows stronger

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