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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (3885)	12/17/1997 2:16:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 10921

Eugene, RE: "is there ANY REASONABLE possibility of a change in the foundation of the semi-equipment/ semiconductor industry that would cause revenues to drop long term?" The DRAM situation is a model of such a possibility. Demand for DRAM is growing strongly, but production capacity has grown more rapidly and DRAM is a commodity. So, prices are falling rapidly and resulting revenues are flat or down. As competition increases in more and more semi segments and the market demands industry standards and multiple vendor sources, the whole industry may resemble the current DRAM niche. This isn't "anything else...besides supply/demand issues." Cary