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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (61609)	12/4/2014 1:28:29 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

You skipped the part about "pants on fire lie". How come? How not to calculate temperature 5 June, 2014 (14:04) \| Data Comparisons Written by: Zeke The blogger Steven Goddard has been on a tear recently, castigating NCDC for making up “97% of warming since 1990? by infilling missing data with “fake data”. The reality is much more mundane, and the dramatic findings are nothing other than an artifact of Goddard’s flawed methodology. Lets look at what’s actually going on in more detail. Where did Goddard go wrong? Goddard made two major errors in his analysis, which produced results showing a large bias due to infilling that doesn’t really exist. First, he is simply averaging absolute temperatures rather than using anomalies. Absolute temperatures work fine if and only if the composition of the station network remains unchanged over time. If the composition does change, you will often find that stations dropping out will result in climatological biases in the network due to differences in elevation and average temperatures that don’t necessarily reflect any real information on month-to-month or year-to-year variability. Lucia covered this well a few years back with a toy model, so I’d suggest people who are still confused about the subject to consult her spherical cow. His second error is to not use any form of spatial weighting (e.g. gridding) when combining station records. While the USHCN network is fairly well distributed across the U.S., its not perfectly so, and some areas of the country have considerably more stations than others. Not gridding also can exacerbate the effect of station drop-out when the stations that drop out are not randomly distributed... rankexploits.com Zeke (Comment #129969) June 5th, 2014 at 2:36 pm Its also worth pointing out that these problems plague some of Goddard’s other recent claims, like his assertion that the first four months of 2014 were the coldest on record: stevengoddard.wordpress.com Here is what the results should actually look like:http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j237/hausfath/USHCNgriddedanomaliesaveragedabsolutesjan-april_zps397d3fbb.png