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Non-Tech : The Brazil Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1450)	12/17/2014 6:55:34 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

The joke making rounds go like this: which will reach 5 first: Gasoline The Real PBR

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1450)	12/17/2014 6:57:07 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

Petrobras Said to Cut Exploration Spending in Cash Crunch curbing refining and exploration spending in response to the collapse in prices and difficulties tapping debt markets during a corruption probe, said two people with direct knowledge of the matter. plans to freeze investments in the Premium I and Premium II refineries in northeastern Brazil and sell assets to protect its cash position, said one of the people. The exploration cuts will focus on projects that are behind schedule, they said. Petrobras Said to Cut Exploration Spending in Cash Crunch By Sabrina Valle and Leonardo Silva Dec 16, 2014 7:44 PM GMT+0300 Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), the biggest oil producer in ultra-deep waters, is curbing refining and exploration spending in response to the collapse in prices and difficulties tapping debt markets during a corruption probe, said two people with direct knowledge of the matter. The state-run oil company known as Petrobras plans to freeze investments in the Premium I and Premium II refineries in northeastern Brazil and sell assets to protect its cash position, said one of the people. The exploration cuts will focus on projects that are behind schedule, they said. Both asked not to be named because the information isn’t public. The stock erased a 6.8 percent drop to surge as much as 8.1 percent in Sao Paulo. It was up 5 percent to 9.64 reais at 2:42 p.m. Petrobras didn’t respond to e-mails seeking comment. “This is totally beneficial for the company, as they can build cash,” Henrique Kleine, an analyst at brokerage Magliano, said by telephone from Sao Paulo, referring to the refinery plans. “The stock price is so low and that brings strong volatility.” Petrobras, the most indebted publicly-traded oil company, is trading at the lowest since 2004 amid an expanding investigation into contractors who allegedly bribed company officials. The oil producer has delayed reporting its financial results while independent investigators conclude their reports in what has become Brazil’s largest-ever money-laundering and corruption scandal. Shares tumbled 9.2 percent yesterday. Writedown Discord Petrobras has said it needs to release audited results to access foreign capital markets. The delay in reporting results came after the company’s board couldn’t agree on the size of writedowns stemming from graft-related costs, a person with direct knowledge of the issue, who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public, said last week. The company must report unaudited results by the end of January to avoid breaching covenants on some of its bonds that could result in accelerated payments, it said in a statement Dec. 12. Petrobras also plans to review its fuel-price strategy and curb operating expenses to preserve cash, which stood at 62.5 billion reais ($23 billion) at the end of September, it said. The price of crude oil plunged through $60 a barrel for the first time in five years amid a supply glut. While Petrobras is looking to contain spending in Brazil, it’s delaying a planned exit from Argentina’s petrochemical business as the graft case in Brazil slows signing of new contracts, two people familiar with that process said. Petrobras received a joint offer for its 34 percent stake in Cia. Mega SA from partners YPF SA and Dow Chemical Co., said the people, who asked not to be named because the talks are private. Buenos Aires-based YPF owns 38 percent of Mega and Dow has 28 percent. To contact the reporters on this story: Sabrina Valle in Rio de Janeiro at svalle@bloomberg.net; Leonardo Silva in Sao Paulo at lsilva51@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Attwood at jattwood3@bloomberg.net Peter Millard

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1450)	1/19/2015 11:10:53 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

Capital flowing to Brazil despite economic gloom Jonathan Wheatley \| Jan 19 11:59 \| 1 comment \| Share The gloom continues to darken over the outlook for Brazil’s economy this year but, for the time being, investors are betting that the country’s very high interest rates are worth the risk. The central bank’s latest weekly survey of market economists shows the consensus on economic growth this year falling yet again, to just 0.38 per cent. Inflation expectations, meanwhile, have crept up again, to 6.67 per cent, beyond the upper limit of the government’s target range. Industrial production is expected to grow by just 0.7 per cent (down from a predicted 3 per cent a year ago) and the current account deficit is seen widening to $78bn. In response to inflationary pressure, the central bank’s policy rate is seen ending the year at 12.5 per cent, up from 11.75 per cent today. A report on EM FX flows from Citi Research on Monday suggests that investors are swayed more by that last figure than by the others. As the chart above shows, flows from Citi’s clients have turned positive this month from being strongly negative in late December. While leveraged investors (ie hedge funds) have been switching in and out, real money investors (pension funds and other institutions) have turned broadly positive. As the second chart shows, real money investors have been the most strongly positive for the past year, with leveraged clients still negative. Even Citi’s corporate clients, which have been withdrawing money from the Brazil for much of the past year, have started sending funds the other way. Citi’s clients are not alone. As our third chart shows, the Brailian real, which came close to trading at R$2.80 to the dollar in December, has since recovered to about R$2.62. But there is little doubt about the trend devaluation gripping the real since the third quarter of last year, just as there is little doubt that Brazil is in dire need of a new source of economic growth, now that the commodities super-cycle and US monetary stimulus appear to be at an end. Perhaps investors are betting that the European Central Bank will pick up where the US Federal Reserve left off. Or perhaps they are banking on being first out of the door should the currency start sliding again. Back to beyondbrics

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1450)	1/21/2015 1:14:57 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By DewDiligence_on_SI Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2504

Why Brazil will turn the corner and will come on top. Not because the people there will get more clever better educated or less inefficient. Take food for instance: The Middle East ad Africa arid areas, had Arab Spring in several countries not because they wanted democracy. It was because food was taking a high and higher % of their income. To appease these populaces these governments need to buy food. Europe is running out of cash and pretty soon will have less cash to subsidize their loss making farmers. New agriculture frontiers? Look to Ukraine! China, is becoming a consumers’ economy. They will eat more and better. More imports from Brazil. Granted we need better infrastructure. But not much PhDs to produce food. Oil is getting cheaper. Better for the farming sector. It will because the set of circumstances will favor brazil in the next 5 years.

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1450)	2/24/2015 2:09:52 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 2504

Brazil Real Drops to 10-Year Low as Deeper Contraction Forecast Brazil’s real declined to a decade low as analysts surveyed by the central bank projected a deeper contraction in Latin America’s largest economy. The currency fell 0.3 percent to 2.8786 per dollar at the close of trade in Sao Paulo after earlier slipping to a level weaker than 2.9 per dollar for the first time since September 2004. “Investors are sensitive to this increasingly grim economic picture as negative data keep piling up,” Camila Abdelmalack, an economist at CM Capital Markets in Sao Paulo, said in a telephone interview. Analysts forecast a 0.5 percent contraction in gross domestic product this year, according to the median of about 100 estimates in a weekly central bank survey published Monday. In the prior week, they saw the economy shrinking 0.42 percent. Concern that Greece’s fiscal turmoil and the potential for Federal Reserve interest-rate increases will damp demand for emerging-market assets also pushed the real lower. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy said during an event in Sao Paulo that it’s time to create a basis for growth. While global currencies have been volatile, Brazil’s central bank has acted to limit fluctuations in the real, he said. “The minister made clear how high volatility is at the moment, and that could eventually lead to an extension of the supporting program,” Joao Paulo de Gracia Correa, a currency trader at Correparti Corretora de Cambio in Curitiba, Brazil, said in a telephone interview. Currency SwapsTo support the real and limit import price increases, Brazil sold the equivalent of $97.8 million of currency swaps Monday and rolled over contracts worth $630.6 million. The central bank plans to offer as much as $100 million a day until at least March 31. One-month implied volatility on options for the real, reflecting projected shifts in the exchange rate, was the highest among emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg after the Russian ruble. The real has lost 21 percent in the past six months, the most among 16 major currencies, on concern a stalled Brazilian economy and fiscal weakness will lead to a sovereign credit downgrade. Swap rates, measuring expectations for changes in Brazil’s borrowing costs, fell 0.02 percentage point to 13.23 percent Monday on the contract maturing in January 2016. To contact the reporters on this story: Paula Sambo in Sao Paulo at psambo@bloomberg.net; Filipe Pacheco in Sao Paulo at fpacheco4@bloomberg.net

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (1450)	9/1/2015 9:03:21 AM
From: elmatador	2 Recommendations Recommended By DewDiligence_on_SI Hawkmoon Respond to of 2504

Lula wealth re-distribution was nothing more that handing out to the poor echelons the money the Chinese was creating by stimulating their economy. As the economy skyrocketed, governments coffers filled in. Then China peaked. Europeans and Americans were not consuming the goods they were producing: · As Brazilian economy cooled off two things happened: · Less economic growth caught indebted people to cut expenses to pay debts. · That means until the deleverage, they won't re-start to consume. · You may say, they will pay durable goods, in 24 to 60 months. Which means they have two to 3 years to pay these debts. · But they are stuck with the mortgages for the next 15 to 20 years. · Second as a result of all the above: · You have government with less revenue as the economy has cooled off Obviously the ordinary Brazilian noticed that in 2013. When they saw the expending in the World Cup and they were suffering in their pockets. Dilma thought: let me though the construction magnatas under the bus and this may appease the populace. It backfired as the masses saw this as another failure of the PT regime. Now we have a terrible 3 years. 2018 Dilma and PT will be voted out of office for good. Center right will return to power. By them the situation had reached the bottom, estabilised and will be returning to growth. Center right will say: we put Brazil back on track.