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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (108835)	12/8/2014 9:50:33 AM
From: Metacomet	Respond to of 218584

not sure what that chart is saying.. ..and is that +/- a fraction of a percent for everybody but Russia for each $10 it falls..we are down over $40 on WTC since June, I believe ..and if oil is down over 40%, that is less than a 4% delta in all of those GDP's, producers as well as consumers.. Intuitively that seems to correlate more with increased pot production.. 1. Oil and the Global Economy After rallying on Monday following a precipitous drop the week before last, oil prices fell steadily for the rest of the week with NY futures closing at $65.84 and London closing at $69.07, the lowest closing since July 2009. On Thursday, the Saudis lowered their price for oil coming to the US, indicating that they will continue efforts to maintain their market share. The Saudis’ price cut was the steepest in records going back to 2000. While US employment numbers were stronger than expected last week, commentators are noting that many of the newly employed are in low-paying jobs and are not likely to result in much of an increase in the demand for gasoline. Conventional wisdom is saying that the plunge is not over yet and that lower prices are ahead as there is still too much oil being produced, and too little demand. Market technical indicators that have turned strongly bullish are being ignored by the markets, suggesting to some traders that prices are headed still lower. The Saudis are saying they see the market stabilizing around $60 for Brent which is now less than $10 away; Credit Suisse says US oil will average $62 a barrel in the first quarter; the Russians are joking that we will soon see $63, which is President Putin’s age; and the real pessimists are talking about $35 a barrel which would come when the world runs out of storage capacity for the excess oil production. Somewhere along the line, however, the US is likely to start buying for its strategic reserve, dumping the oil into storage caverns to support prices. The Chinese are already taking advantage of low prices to build their strategic reserves. The question now is just what does $60 or lower oil mean for the global economy and the continuation of drilling for high-cost oil? EIA and OPEC analysts calculate that some 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day of oil will have to be removed from the market in the first quarter to stabilize prices. Obviously large consumers of oil products such as the US, the EU, China and Japan are going to be doing much better in the short term as large amounts of wealth that had been going to the oil exporting countries will stay with the oil importers. US gasoline prices are now averaging $2.68 a gallon with a few gas stations selling for less than $2. Some are saying that at least of third of the companies drilling for shale oil are in serious trouble despite a stream of reassuring pronouncements from CEOs. For drillers in North Dakota, Colorado and Wyoming, wellhead oil prices are already around $50 per barrel because of the costs of moving this oil to refineries, which are mostly located along the coasts. For small drillers who are in the business only because of ever-increasing debt, there are serious troubles ahead unless prices rebound significantly soon. us6.campaign-archive2.com