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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (108836)	12/8/2014 4:05:09 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217905

Chinese rocket is jettisoning fuel guzzling pollution intensive.first stage. Will ignite second stage: Less pollution, less energy intensive. But keeps propelling rocket upwards as it hits escape velocity. Will turn as THE ANT says into a consumer driven economy

To: TobagoJack who wrote (108836)	12/8/2014 7:43:07 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217905

HSBC asks: how big is China? When the IMF announced this year that China’s economy had overtaken the US economy at purchasing power parity, there was some skepticism about the usefulness of PPP calculations and widespread amazement about the speed at which China had made this transformation. Both themes carry over in a note on Friday from HSBC, which examines the data more closely to conclude that, even after switching variables, the size and importance of the Chinese economy cannot be denied. Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC, takes a look at the size of various economies in terms of their international purchasing power: that is, by comparing their GDP in US dollars. The picture seems more familiar now, as the US continues to lead (with 22 per cent of the world share) while China only has about 11 per cent. However, as Neumann demonstrates in the chart below, this ratio has changed significantly over the last decade. The US share of the world economy in 2000 was 31 per cent while China had a measly 4 per cent. Additionally, emerging Asia’s combined GDP in US dollar terms is now neck to neck with that of the US. Perhaps more importantly, this growth is forecast to continue in 2015. According to Neumann, China’s contribution to global output at $800bn will be double that of the US next year. Asia as a whole (including China and Japan) may in fact add more to the world’s incremental GDP than the US, eurozone and the rest of the world combined! Finally, to assess the impact of this growth, Neumann looks at import demand. Even after accounting for derived demand in Asia – where goods are often imported, processed and then sold elsewhere – by assuming that just 50 per cent of purchases reflect actual local demand, the figures are impressive. As seen in the chart below, China’s incremental import demand of nearly $80bn far outpaces US demand (approx $61bn). So what does this mean for world growth? First, and quite obviously, it displays the decelerating impact of the US economy, not simply because of its slower growth rate but because of its declining share of world consumption. Rather more worrying in such a situation is the prospect of China beginning to slow down too. Neumann reckons that, to sustain a 1 percentage point increase in global GDP growth, US incremental import demand will have to grow twice as much as that from China. If Chinese growth flags, the west will struggle to counteract any losses. As Neumann succinctly sums up: “The world needs Asia to hold up.”