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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3898)	12/17/1997 9:04:00 AM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian; I have assigned a 90% probability that we will be headed for a cyclical low 6 months from now. Moores Law (.25 micron) will not prevent the equipment co bloodshed just as the .35 micron process did not prevent 1996. In fact, because .25 produces 2X as many die per wafer, Moores law could actually make the situation worse. Also, a generous bail out of Korea could do nothing but prolong the misery for the memory and equipment sector. I hope we get on with life and allow those fabs to fail. Should we inject capital without sound return on invested capital judgement we will only compound the current problems. Stranger policy has prevailed when government politics is at the heart of the capital allocation process! Regards, Jay