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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J_F_Shepard who wrote (823272)	12/17/2014 7:30:58 PM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1579770

First, you're not paying for Keystone XL. Private investors are taking the business risk. Second, it's very unlikely they'll make the decision on a pipeline that will be used for decades on the basis of last week's price. So at about $60, where we are now, most are losing money Actually on wells already drilled, they've likely making money going forward. But while prices are low, many companies will cut back on drilling till prices recover. It's happened several times over the past few decades ... that was the point of my post: ....... it has historically taken up to 2 years for prices to complete a deep decline and then undergo a recovery. ............ Given that oil prices began to move lower in July of this year, a 20-month downcycle would mean that oil price may not recover until approximately Q1 2016. The average peak-to-trough decline for the three corrections was slightly over 60%. For the current correction, a 60% peak-to-trough decline would imply a "bottom" price of approximately $45 per barrel. .......... The duration of the price "bottom" is approximately 3 to 5 months. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29855361&srchtxt=seekingalpha In the last oil price crash, it got down below $40. I can recall $10 being reached in 86 and in 98-99.