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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Real Man who wrote (56670)12/26/2014 7:06:03 PM
From: Pogeu Mahone  Respond to of 71454
 
U.S. Lowers One Hurdle to Obtaining a Mortgage
By PATRICIA COHENDEC. 8, 2014
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Hoping to lure more first-time home buyers into the housing market, the government on Monday detailed its plan to offer mortgages with a down payment of as little as 3 percent of the purchase price.

The proposal, first announced in October, aims to make mortgages more widely available to people who have a strong credit history but lack the ready cash for the standard 20 percent down payment.

Some critics warned about the risk of repeating the subprime mortgage fiasco and opening the door to higher defaults among home buyers lacking any substantive equity cushion in case of another downturn in the market. But federal housing officials and other experts challenged these concerns, saying the new programs include a range of safeguards, including underwriting restrictions, a requirement to buy private mortgage insurance and counseling to reduce the risk of defaults.

“These underwriting guidelines provide a responsible approach to improving access to credit while ensuring safe and sound lending practices,” Melvin L. Watt, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said in a statement.

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Melvin Watt, head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said on Monday that he wanted to lure more first-time home buyers.CreditIsaac Brekken for The New York TimesMr. Watt’s agency regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two large government-backed entities that guarantee mortgages and will be offering the new mortgage programs. While both Fannie and Freddie will require the loans to be fixed rate and to cover the borrower’s primary residence, some features differ.

Fannie Mae’s new My Community Mortgage program begins this week and is open only to first-time buyers with a minimum credit score of 620. Borrowers with Fannie-backed mortgages will be eligible to refinance with a limited amount of money that can be taken out.

Freddie Mac’s new Home Possible Advantage mortgages, which begin in March, will be available to both first-time and other qualified borrowers. In most cases, credit scores will be just one of several factors in determining a home buyer’s eligibility, a spokesman said. Refinancing, though with no cash-out, also will be available.

The programs are the latest efforts to promote homeownership after the collapse of the housing bubble, in hopes of reviving a housing industry that is still plagued by excessive foreclosures and struggling to overcome millions of owners still trapped in underwater mortgages.

Today, first-time home buyers — who are generally younger — account for just 29 percent of home sales, far below the historical rate of 40 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. In the third quarter of this year, the Census Bureau reported recently, the nation’s seasonally adjusted homeownership rate was 64.3 percent, the lowest level in two decades.

The government’s move was applauded by the mortgage insurance industry, which expects a business increase from the new programs, and advocates for low-income families.

“We wouldn’t be putting borrowers in these loans if we were worried about their performance through stressful times,” said Rohit Gupta, chief executive of Genworth’s United States Mortgage Insurance Business and co-chairman of the U.S. Mortgage Insurers, a trade association.

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The Urban Institute, a nonprofit research organization that generally supports social programs, concluded: “Those who have criticized low-down-payment lending as excessively risky should know that if the past is a guide, only a narrow group of borrowers will receive these loans, and the overall impact on default rates is likely to be negligible.”

Housing officials declined to estimate just how many people might take advantage of these new loans, but even supporters question the magnitude of the new programs.

Guy D. Cecala, chief executive and publisher of the newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance, estimated the effect would be modest, noting that first-time buyers who qualified for similar low down payment loans accounted for only 3 percent of Fannie-backed mortgages in 2013.

“It’s another tool in helping the housing market, but not a huge one,” Mr. Cecala said.

Since the borrowers must still be credit worthy, he explained, “this is not pushing the envelope.”

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, also expressed doubt that this latest initiative would lure many new buyers, saying that the lack of demand and tight mortgage standards have been bigger hurdles than the size of the down payment.

Mark A. Calabria, an economist at the libertarian Cato Institute, was not as sanguine about the financial stability of the targeted borrowers. Given closing costs, he said, “You’re essentially underwater when you walk away from the table.”

“That is not a situation we should be trying to get people in,” he said.

To Andres Carbacho-Burgos, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, however, the danger of mortgage defaults generally comes from lax monitoring, not lower down payment requirements.

While sharing the view that the effect would be limited, Mr. Carbacho-Burgos said the program was nonetheless worth pursuing. “Anything that can be done to restart the first-time home buyer market is a good thing,” he said.

A version of this article appears in print on December 9, 2014, on page B1 of the New York edition with the headline: U.S. Lowers One Hurdle to Obtaining a



To: Real Man who wrote (56670)1/10/2015 2:33:51 PM
From: ggersh1 Recommendation

Recommended By
roguedolphin

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 71454
 
Interesting....maybe one of our friendly "hedge funds" or one
of the big boyzzzzz?

blog.milesfranklin.com

A GLOBAL MARGIN CALL
Author : Bill Holter
Published: January 8th, 2015

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[iframe frameborder="0" hspace="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" tabindex="0" vspace="0" width="100%" id="I0_1420918253868" name="I0_1420918253868" src="https://apis.google.com/u/0/se/0/_/+1/fastbutton?usegapi=1&size=standard&count=true&origin=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.milesfranklin.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.milesfranklin.com%2Fa-global-margin-call&gsrc=3p&ic=1&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fapps-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Doz.gapi.en.pnJE6Jh2ypQ.O%2Fm%3D__features__%2Fam%3DAQ%2Frt%3Dj%2Fd%3D1%2Ft%3Dzcms%2Frs%3DAGLTcCNdDDxkx4Kz_jHLAkiOgGCRYDbh6w#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh&id=I0_1420918253868&parent=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.milesfranklin.com&pfname=&rpctoken=14968686" data-gapiattached="true" title="+1" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: static; top: 0px; width: 106px; border-style: none; left: 0px; visibility: visible; height: 24px;"][/iframe]

[iframe src="http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.milesfranklin.com%2Fa-global-margin-call&layout=standard&show_faces=true&width=300&height=25&action=like&font=arial&colorscheme=light" id="fbLikeIframe" name="fbLikeIframe" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" class="fbLikeContainer" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: none; overflow: hidden; width: 300px; height: 25px; display: inline;"][/iframe]We have seen unprecedented volatility over the last 2 months, in particular the last 3 weeks. This is highly unusual as most year ends and beginnings are calm with very little news. The news on a global scale has had the volume turned up so that nearly no market has been left unaffected. The obvious markets are FOREX and oil, the not so obvious market is that of the hidden markets, OTC derivatives. We have just finished the worst three days to start the year in history, what has happened?

I wrote about this yesterday and don’t want to be redundant but it is my belief, someone is already “very dead” …we just don’t know “who”. Before going any further, in my opinion it really doesn’t matter “who” has been blown up because everyone is sleeping with everyone else so to speak. It doesn’t matter who has been bankrupted, it matters who the bankrupt “owes” …and then it matters who they owe …and who they owe etc. etc.. The fact is, we live in a credit based daisy chain where no one can be allowed to fail or they all fail. This truth was displayed in 2008 with Lehman, we were only hours away from a complete seizure while the Fed was working behind the scenes with a $16 trillion fire hose.

It is now different than 2008, FAR different and FAR more dangerous. How can I say this? First, the Fed has already quintupled their balance sheet. The ECB has filled their own balance sheet with steaming cow patties of bankrupt sovereign debt …while the Swiss have filled their central bank balance sheet with euros, go figure? Let’s not forget about the Japanese, they have printed enough yen to purchase all new Japanese and U.S. sovereign debt issued …absolutely BLATANT monetization!

But wait, until a week or two ago we were being told the global economy (except for Russia of course) was “recovering”. Talk of the Fed actually raising rates was the toast of the holidays and champagne glasses rose to cheer an economy growing at 5%. Fast forward not even 2 weeks and panic has already arrived. Instead of a weakening yen, it is now strengthening. This is one leg of the carry trade. The other leg is the dollar, this $9+++trillion beast has also strengthened as asset prices are dumped and “dollar loans” are paid back. This folks, was not “part of the script”!

Taking this just a bit further, oil was “supposed” to come down to injure Mr. Putin and Russia, it was NOT supposed to crash more than 50%. I say “supposed” because now the U.S., Canada, Australia and a long list of other names in the oil patch have impaired energy industries. Has Saudi Arabia just cleaned out their competition and put shale projects around the world on hold or out of business? Has China filled her strategic reserves and given herself an energy tax cut? Has the East just blown up the West’s petrodollar system …with alternatives and contingency plans waiting in the wings? It’s OK, you can say it …”yes”.

So now that markets are spinning out of control, what is the answer? “QE4 squared” of course! Just yesterday as an example, Charles Evans (voting Fed member) said raising rates now would be a “catastrophe” because housing is not as strong as they thought it should be by now. Really Mr. Evans? Just housing? Should the U.S. lead (follow) the world into negative interest rates for pieces of paper which have zero intrinsic value in the first place? Or another example across the pond, Der Spiegel says the ECB has lost control and questions whether “ helicopter money” comes next?

The point is this, “control” is being lost. The system itself has gotten too large for the central banks to control EVEN with 100-1 leverage. On nearly a daily basis, the official comments coming out contradict what was said the day before. Simply put, the rhetoric, jawboning and outright lies need to be bigger and more rapidly dispersed to keep the sheep within the herd. The problem of course is they are actually “working against themselves” in so many various markets. They must print which waters down currency values and creates demand for real money gold. They must suppress gold prices but they actually need inflation. They need lower rates for the world to carry the debt but are zero bound … they also need rates higher to show “economic strength”. They need inflation to cheapen the debt but the inflation cannot be seen by the herd. They need cheap oil as tax cut to consumers but can’t have cheap oil because then the petrodollar loses support and derivatives go upside down. They need stocks higher but can’t have a bubble because they can no longer handle the “burst”.

Do you see? Nearly all markets need to move in both directions at the same time to support “the story” told to the sheep and at to maintain the perception of control. As I have written for the past few days, U.S. QE4 and ECB monetization etc. will by necessity be implemented because there are no other tools left. No collateral remains unencumbered to reflate so the final tool is outright, unabridged and publicly visible monetization. We are in the very endgame of the Ponzi where deflating assets (derivatives and thus broken balance sheets) will force more free money in the hopes of systemic survival. This, while markets have become too large to corral by central bank’s weakening powers. If you question my statement “weakening power”, just look at their balance sheets. Look at their pure size compared to 6 years ago and also look at what “assets” they now consist of.

I call a FULL ALERT because control has and is being lost. There are no more “bazookas” left as Hank Paulson called it. There are not even any bullets left! Can they sweep it under the rug again as they have done for so many years? I believe no, there are no more “can kicks”. I don’t believe the ability exists because there are so many markets and asset classes going “in the wrong direction” in violent moves. Even gold, THE most sacrosanct market to the total “rig” has been quietly going higher throughout all of this. In fact, looked at versus non dollar currencies, gold has been in a rip roaring bull market for several months …while demand for the metal has exploded.

Take for example in euro terms, gold has now blown higher and through 1,000 euros with a vengeance, European demand will be further bolstered in a physical safe haven manner. This is true almost everywhere and in every currency. Will foreigners flock to actual dollars for safety? Or will they chase an already under-supplied gold market? The dollar rally has been purely “synthetic” and has occurred because of carry trades being forced into closure. The underlying assets have dropped forcing liquidations and dollars “bought” to close the trades. It has become a self fulfilling circle. Why has gold not declined along with other “commodities” you ask? Because gold is not a commodity, it is money, real money and nothing else is. Hasn’t gold been purchased with leverage and “carried” as the commodities were? Yes, this trade was cleaned out over the last 2-3 years with the sale (help) of naked COMEX futures.

What I think we are seeing early yet clear glimpses of are the short positions being unwound. Remember, we showed you a few months back evidence of a “long Nikkei-short gold” trade. This looks to be unwinding along with several other “schemes”. When all is said and done, the unwind will take everything “defaultable” with it. Gold nor silver can default as an asset, nor as money. Gold will be THE go to safe haven as defaulting derivatives expose the many already insolvent sovereigns and their central banks.

The big question we have harped on for several years “who really has the gold” will be THE question rising from the ashes of a burnt paper system. Either central banks have it or not, having it will be THE ticket to sit at the table deciding on future policy. Having it or not personally will be the difference between having wealth to negotiate in whatever new system arises. Having gold or not will be the difference between having wealth or being at the mercy of charity. This is not a drill! Because everything is computerized, events can, do, and will happen at speeds faster than you can think. You MUST be positioned now for what comes, any single day you wake up from here can be THE DAY!

Regards, Bill Holter.