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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (109291)	12/29/2014 4:39:50 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217852

truth: 2014 has not been a good year for civilian airplane passengers and not a good lead-in for combat aircraft pilots amidst tranquility am starting to contemplate the indubitable challenge of 2015. the difficulty level is not looking terribly good. ... as long as fiat-money-inflation continues and real interest rate remains negative, the difficulty-level of challenge should rise at sharp incline, then parabolic, hyperbolic, and eventually exponential rate of change, devolving most of merit, disintegrating much of everything else, and inexorably teeing-up galactic triple-waterfall repricing and universal monetary zero-state reset, thereby breach the event-horizon barrier to darkest interregnum. but those worries are for another day some 92 hours from now. today we must figure out the eventual winner of the tug between hyper inflation and diaper deflation, the key to everything. ... and should fiat-money inflation fail, all 'deflationary' hell would break loose. between hyper inflation and diaper deflation, i hope the electorates choose wisely. at the moment am imagining lead-in / -up to reflexology session, w/ one foot in sub-zero block of deflation ice, and the other in above-boil pot of inflation water, on average we are fine. okay, figured it out, both deflation and inflation shall win. the always-key question is "in what sequence?" another day. i believe you may be correct re 2015 being a simple transition year, w/ the main event further out, and the definitive-closure further out still. am hoping that the good parts should start before jack (4) gets fascinated by girls which ought to be in perhaps 48 months, and that closure happens w/i 36-48 months after the good parts, and all would be fine w/i 14 years. am an optimist. in the mean time am wondering what the hotel beach grill this night involves we moved out of the largish house to now camp at a more suitable hotel as the extended-family entourage have de-camped from thailand to singapore. we shall stick around until the new year.

To: carranza2 who wrote (109291)	12/29/2014 9:30:17 PM
From: THE ANT	1 Recommendation Recommended By elmatador Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217852

In a debt based economy money is created by increasing debt. Even with zero rates not enough people who can borrow want to borrow as all assets have been maxed to reflect zero Fed rates. It is hard for rates to go lower and make PE rates go higher or in the case of housing make the ratio of housing/medium area family income go higher. Most asset price increase in the last 5 years has been due to the realization rates will stay low.If asset prices are at all frothy it is due to people responding to asset price increases and not seeing the end of the trend ahead. The US government must deficit spend or deficit lower taxes for any chance of creating inflation. I dont think it is a coincidence that oil plunged after this last election. The deflationary winds of the latest dollar increase hasn't even hit the US yet. Even if the US deficit spends and starts to create inflation, the fall in bonds might wipe out enough debt to cause deflation if the rising rates didn't do the job.Now what if the government owned all debt in the US and then created inflation by deficit spending and refusing to raise short term rates. The loss on bonds would occur in the belly of the government, forcing the government to take the loses.If the government did not cut spending or increase taxes they would have even higher deficit spending(yes deficit spending is as close as we come to printing) and further increase inflation,causing more losses to debt. It would lower debt but be a dangerous game and distribute loses to all Americans where as deflation will cause losses to the wealthy who own those assets and not the American public in general.Much safer to accept deflation. A recent court case made it easier to renegotiate retirement agreements for local,state,and federal workers.The main problem with deflation is that pension obligations were set based on inflationary expectations.The other problem is that deflation can make zero fed rates look high and result in debt liquidation.Just because it hasn't happened yet does not mean debt liquidation doesn't start soon. Oil made its move very quickly and debt liquidation may be here before you know it. Asset price inflation is almost certainly over The FED finally made the right move and dropped rates before assets crashed and everyone complains .A FED rate of zero will be too high shortly.The trick is to deficit spend just enough to keep inflation at 1-2%.This will be tough to do as the Japanese are finding out.We have too low a deficit at this time. We should raise it with middle class tax cuts or infrastructure spending.

To: carranza2 who wrote (109291)	12/30/2014 10:00:19 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217852

Please remind me what JGB stands for. Stockman's piece is gravely deficient in editing. His grasp of economics may be correct, but the spelling, punctuation, and usage errors make it virtually illiterate.

To: carranza2 who wrote (109291)	1/2/2015 8:38:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 217852

yes, i am watching the drama playing out in japan but for the mess happening in mena w/ the seeming continuation of an ancient story, what w/ the caliphate's re-drawing of already re-drawn map making china's supposedly big-deal of nine-dashed lines in south china sea seem very reasonable, japan would be front and center as we all turn japanese in an econo-monetary sense a hoot-ing 2015 could be spot-on especially w/ the vacuum effects to take place in afghanistan/pakistan, and w/ the indians seemingly (at least by msm take) getting more ernest with wat-wot-whatnot, and a europe turning japanese at faster clip even as japan accelerates in japan-ification. should policy makers choose, much more unconventional measures can be sprung at the same time it is unclear to me what the china offers to russia and iraq and and and all means, but observe that a lot of long-reach gear is being rushed from lab to field, and quite a bit of i-banking related to development and rollout of long-reach gear is filling the pipelines - a new peace-keeper is in the making, an reasonable surmise that is neither optimistic nor pessimistic - but if so, expect the new peace-keeper would behave very differently than all peace-keepers w/i past 700 years. oh, yes, and then there is the lead-up to usa electioneering 2016 which ought to be as if not more entertaining than usual it seems odd to me that the msm makes hong kong's very extremely peaceful and orderly and clean civil disobedience holiday to be symptom of severely repressed and soon to explode rage - my observation, raging people do not pick up and bag their own refuse during demonstrations but, gad, i have been sent and watched some macdonald's-rage youtube clips ... observe that i would not want to inadvertently make a wrong turn into a less-right neighborhoods air and road rage are more understandable burger rage less so in hong kong people hold marriage parties at the golden arch telegraph.co.uk in other places such would seem ill-advised tvnz.co.nz :0) cheers, tj