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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MCsweet who wrote (54669)	1/1/2015 3:40:38 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78615

No, I am dead serious. The underperformance is not for one year, but rather for the last three+ years (you can click the back links from my post to see previous years' results; I "respond" to my previous year's return post). I really don't see what I bring to the table. Plus it takes a huge amount of time that could be spent on other things. Now, I enjoy doing it. And it would be worth it if I could keep up with the market at least. As it is now, I don't see the point. Also consider Buffett's claim that he could do 50% annual if he was managing small sums of money. OK, we are not Buffett, so divide this by 2. That's 25%. Reasonable hurdle that has been achieved by a number of small size portfolio managers. Consider that we've been in a bull market for 4+ years now, which means a big tailwind. So if someone does not have 25% annualized for 4 years, OK, let me make this easier one more time 15% annualized for the last 4 years, I think they should seriously think of quitting. And I am one of these people. My annualized since 2010 is ~11%, since 2011 ~8.7% annualized. This is way below a level at which someone should fold. :) Caveats: it might be that I would outperform a lot if bear market strikes. But this is not guaranteed. This year my performance during downturns was pretty bad. I outperformed in 2009 coming out of the crisis (88% annual return Quicken says). However, 2009 outperformance was partially because I luckily got a bunch of cash to invest in end of 2008, so it was probably more luck than my superior investment skill.