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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (187602)	1/2/2015 12:37:24 AM
From: Jim P.	2 Recommendations Recommended By CommanderCricket isopatch Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206085

The oil price decline in the mid 80's had more to do with spare capacity in the Middle East and new production from fields tapped in the North Sea. I do not think the spare capacity is comparable nor the cost structure of shale oil. 18 months tops and WTI will be over $80 is my opinion barring a worldwide recession. The longer crude oil is down the more future production is impacted. Really, $100 oil for several years before there was a surplus??? It is just not that easy to build up production growth and the ramp that occurred in the U.S. was hundreds of billions of $ to get ahead of decline and stagnant growth in the rest of the world. I have read calls for $40, $35 and even some nut got press for $14 crude oil.... I would have a higher price target but have confidence that producers in the very competitive North American market will push the cost of production down and a soft landing on production growth is more likely than a sharp decline at least in the U.S. A lot of other areas will have disinvestment because politicians will simply not have the money for social programs and production growth. Higher cost areas will simply decline faster. For picks, I have nibbled at higher cost DNR, some VNR account quality assets and calm careful management, ATLS for its soon to be spun off sub and TRGP stock. I still own PXD but have to look out a couple of years to justify. FANG's royalty MLP (VNOM) is also a long term play. Oil price low this year, I have no clue. Jim

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (187602)	1/2/2015 1:48:30 AM
From: Sailing2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206085

It would be interesting to hear your "lots of reasons why oil could lose share in the energy markets" given that oil is almost exclusively employed in the transportation sector. It is difficult for me to see any significant near-term substitution for oil in the vehicle, aircraft, rail or marine transport sectors except possibly natural gas for fleet vehicles and perhaps some rail. It will be at least two decades, in my opinion, before market penetration of electric or fuel cell vehicles becomes significant. What exactly are your "lots of reasons?"