Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (109443)	1/2/2015 9:28:48 PM
From: bart13	3 Recommendations Recommended By dvdw© ggersh isopatch Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219862

As a fictional epitaph I read many decades ago said, "He ate what was set in front of him". And it's a decent analogy for the Dow and many other indexes and investing targets. There's no question about survivor bias (and other games that are played without a level playing field), I think there's only one stock in the Dow today that was also there in 1896... but the Dow has been available to investors and simple to buy, and well known. Stock market bulls bugged me to build that chart to show a fuller picture, and it was a fair point so I did. The bottom line for me though is diversification and it's a matter of balancing the risk, while in CYA mode. It was a poor move to be buying gold from Jan 17, 1980 to 2001 or to not be buying stocks. And we've had a replay of that since 2009-2011. There was a "religious" experience for ideologically trapped bulls in virtually all types of US real estate recently too, which thankfully blew up the "housing always goes up" BS. Gold bugs haven't faired well for 3 years or so, but longer term gold bulls are doing fine - yet another area where fixed ideologies shoot one in the foot. These days I'm looking for some nice pieces of Mexican jelly fire opal since prices are depressed, they're gorgeous and they ain't making any more. I remain far from long term bullish on all the various cultures and societies on the entire planet, and as always, the timing is the only question mark. I'm too old and have some health issues, so I can't play it like you and others who are building productive businesses. I already did that in the 70s and 80s anyhow. So I just try to find and publish data & charts that hopefully make the actual world picture and the heinous games a bit clearer so that more folk can flourish and prosper and be less confused or upset by it all. Greenspan remains a know-it-all ass, although he is correct that economic freedom is damn near impossible without gold and substantial other money in the equation. It's not well known that many of the US Founding Fathers were quite wealthy. And as you say, it continues to be time to watch and brief... and try to be occasionally amused by many of the PTBs as they struggle in their own little self created hell holes of economic and social psychopathy. And to all and sundry, a Happy New Year.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (109443)	1/2/2015 10:11:19 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 219862

Having a house and most assets sufficient metres above sea level is a good start. <other scenarios are harder or impossible to guard against, and amongst such be catastrophic meteor strike, > For decades I have had our primary residence at least 10 metres above sea level. For the last 25 years about 90 metres above, with a newly bought holiday house at Tauranga 10 metres above sea level which is not too bad for 90% of tsunamis though a big and close bolide could get us. A decent splash in the Pacific ocean would be a vast catastrophically calamitous cataclysm, but being alive would be a good first start. Qualcomm is quite high above sea level on Mira Mesa so that is a good thing. Bangalore is high up too [about a kilometre, woohoo!!]. It's amusing that Global Warm-mongers blather on about sea level rise of half a metre over 100 years due to Global Warming, which might or might not happen, but the instantaneous sea level rise of 10 metres due to bolide collision is a metaphysical if probabilistic certainty. They ignore the second and foam at the mouth about the first. The first is essentially harmless as the economic value of nearly all fixed assets can be replaced at higher levels over a period of 100 years. Mqurice