To: ChinuSFO who wrote (148095 ) 1/5/2015 5:36:50 PM From: RetiredNow Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149319 Oil is a plus minus. On the plus side, it is a much needed stimulus to consumers and it comes at the right time, since consumers have seen wage stagnation, even as inflation takes root on the goods they spend most on (health care, rent, food). So that's great. On the downside, it's going to put the breaks on our energy independence. It's killing the oil shale industry. In addition, it's causing major recessionary down swoons in emerging markets, as the USD charges higher. When we were devaluing our currency, emerging markets saw massive liquidity head their way. Now the opposite stampede is happening. That's going to way on overseas markets. But maybe we can pick up the slack? The almighty US consumer is going to have some serious work to do. Hopefully, the Fed doesn't raise rates this year. If they do (and they may have no choice on that matter), then that may kill the recovery and throw the world into a synchronized global recession with no real engine of growth to pull the rest of the world out of it. I think the best case scenario would be for Putin to blink and restore order to Ukraine and re-establish peaceful ties with Europe and the US. That will stabilize at least one area of geopolitics. Saudi Arabia is shooting to put our shale companies out of business though. So I think oil may plunge to low $40's or below, which means Treasuries will see 1%, stocks will plunge, oil producers including Russia will be in a world of hurt, bringing global GDP down with them. On thing that keeps me up at nights is currency swaps and hedges. That is in part based on the petrodollar. Then you have companies like Citigroup going whole hog on derivatives in their FDIC insured accounts and we have the making of another 2008. Nothing was resolved from 2008, so I worry that the next time we have a financial crisis it will be 10 times worse. The risk taking among the Wall Street TBTF's is very extreme right now, moreso than in 2008. Interesting times.