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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jon Tara who wrote (8516)12/17/1997 11:44:00 AM
From: Jesse Thompson Ellington  Respond to of 9285
 
Ditto on the AOL short. Internet Access prices are falling and the
new Excel Telephone (network marketing) area that the netwok marketers are going to attack is internet access. It could be a bloodbath. The one caveat I see is AOL may be holding back on some earnings momentum due to the recent acquisitions.

I ALSO HAVE ANOTHER INCREDIBLE SHORT. YOU AND OTHERS MUST DO THE RESEARCH IN ORDER TO UNDERSTAND (News & SEC Filings) The company is
BASEA. $3.5 million in sales/$80 million market cap. They are a one product company (Pharm2 - software to help pharmaceutical
companies manage their manufacturing resources) They have signed up some big names to test the product but it is my understanding
that those tests are not holding up. In addition there is major competition from the big boys like SAP & Baan. The company will report about a $2 million loss when earnings are announced January 16.
They are burning through cash and here is the JUICY PART.
With $15 mill in debt they have no other resources but to use their stock as currency to raise badley needed funds. Instead of doing a highly pulicized secondary offering, they are doing 144a (reg D)
private placements. They did one in June for $5.5 mil and another one this month for $18 million. WATCH OUT! These type financings are highly dilutive once the shares become free to trade. Unless they perform some miracle with their one and only product Pharm 2, this stock is headed south fast. DO THE RESEARCH AND YOU WILL SEE. (BASEA, BASEA, BASEA)



To: Jon Tara who wrote (8516)12/17/1997 2:04:00 PM
From: W. Clinton Terry  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9285
 
Jon:

Could you post when the technical crossovers occur signaling the entry point into shorting AOL. Thanks.

Clinton



To: Jon Tara who wrote (8516)12/18/1997 2:51:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9285
 
Jon-
I follow AOL technically too.Bought puts yesterday when I got the sell signal.looks like it's good for a 10-15% drop but it's a toughie.GD