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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (3759)	12/17/1997 2:51:00 PM
From: Arnie Doolittle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10227

"Sure, but the max number of subscribers (read: revenues) is capped by Nextel's (relatively) outdated technology and narrow frequency band." As was discussed recently, NXTL's max # of customers seems to be somewhere between 18-24 million. With a low (for NXTL) arpu of $60, that translates into sales between $13 billion to $17 billion. I suspect that will yield something north of $10 a share net income. Put a pe of your choosing on that. Seems to me that's a pretty nice cap. I'll take it. International is additional icing that will further sweeten the pot. "On the other hand, Nextel's capital expenditures and maintenance costs are either fixed (backoffice operations) or driven by the area of coverage (cellular towers, tranceivers)." That's gobbledegook. The same applies to T, Sprint et al. "Fewer customers and fixed costs make Nextel a high cost producer - a bad omen in a highly competitive digital cellular market." Hahahahaha. Fewer customers than what? NXTL never claimed that it was going to be the T of wireless. But it's future sales and lower fixed costs will make it the winner most on this board believe it will be. You don't really believe this stuff you've been writing, do you? Do you work for Mad Magazine? Or perhaps Saturday Nite Live? "Technology may or may not matter for Nextel's subscribers, BUT IT DOES MATTER TO NEXTEL'S SHAREHOLDERS." Again, something we can agree on. NXTL's shareholders are extremely happy with iDEN and the results it's bringing to NXTL. Arnie

To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (3759)	12/17/1997 5:50:00 PM
From: Mike V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

PT, I think you are confused. I own a substantial number of Nextel shares and I'm using the current weakness to buy more. Thanks for talking the stock down. Judging from your last post, I'm see that in addition to your engineering expertise and network design skills you also have expertise in accounting and finance. If we could only get you to work for Nextel and solve all of the problems that YOU see so clearly....keep up the good work..with your DEEP knowledge about engineering, cellular network design and finance you should keep me amused for some time. Your posts now contain fewer and fewer details and more of your opinions. Keep them coming! Mike V BTW, I forward all of your concerns to my friends at Motorola and you are the talk of the group. They are wondering if you are the inspiration for Dilbert's boss.

To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (3759)	12/17/1997 11:31:00 PM
From: Bubba	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10227

PT - I agree system capacity is a real issue. NXTL has said engineered capacity for system is 15mm. Their near term business plan is 7mm. At $60 ARPU, 7mm users, 45% margins & 10x multiple with 360mm shares = $63. Take 12x multiple and get $75. $70 ARPU w/ 12x multiple gets you to $88. Target year is 2002. Not including Int1l. It seems logical that MOU1s & ARPU can stay high w/ 2nd line & data service coming. The only issue is whether the company is right at their estimate of capacity and the business plan for 7mm is realistic by 2002. Given the Street coverage, I doubt the company could BS the Street this long. In any event, we1ll see. BTW, if you read my prior posts as I suggested, these numbers should be old news. Bubba