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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper Fox -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: sense who wrote (9101)1/15/2015 7:55:46 PM
From: dsikorsk2 Recommendations

Recommended By
minder
radagast

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10654
 
If you are so sure that there is no value in CUU, then why do you bother coming to this board? You have obviously made up your mind that all of the assets owned by CUU are completely worthless and that this stock should go to zero. If that is the case, then no amount of discussion can make you change your mind since you have already deemed the assets of CUU as completely worthless.

Whether you like it or not, the assets held by the company hold some intrinsic value at all market prices whether that be $1, $1 million, $100 million or $1 Billion. That value is affected by various factors whether they be commodity prices, project economics, broader market conditions, etc. Seeing as we know your valuation (zero) and that you do not expect it to change, the fact that you are here is a complete of your time. You also just wrote two pages lecturing the shareholders of this company that none of their opinions have any worth because they made an investment mistake in the past and haven't learned from it because they still hold shares. So to me that is an even bigger waste of your time as you are reading posts on people's opinions who do not matter.

Whether you like it or not the properties that CUU own do have some value attached to them. Whether that is more or less than the current market capitalization of the company is up for debate. The current market capitalization of CUU is ~$50 million. They own ~23-25% of Schaft Creek, VanDyke, Sombrero Butte and now have a 42% interest in Carmax. If the company were to be liquidated tomorrow to Teck or whoever else they most certainly wouldn't offer $0 for it. I value the company based on its assets, not based on where you tell me you think the stock price is going. The current share price does not always reflect the true value of a company, if it did I would own exactly the same number of shares as you do. The fact that I once overvalued this company at some point in the past has no bearing on whether is it overvalued (or undervalued) now. Whether the underlying value of the assets is greater or less than the market capitalization of the company determines whether it is overvalued or undervalued today. We know where you stand now so you do not have to repeat yourself.

The people on this board do not need yourself or anyone else for that matter lecturing us on the past transgressions. Mistakes get made, no one here is claiming they didn't make any on trading CUU. Because you have made better choices in the past doesn't make you more or less correct in this case. If you want to make the case for why the company's assets should be valued at less than $50 million then go right ahead, but the fact that the share price is trending toward 0.1, 0.05 or even 0.02 does not make the value of the properties worth less. They either have value or they don't.

Go find value somewhere else as you seem bent on the fact that there is none here.



To: sense who wrote (9101)1/15/2015 8:06:37 PM
From: Metacomet5 Recommendations

Recommended By
dsikorsk
minder
radagast
Tap66
Theotokos

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10654
 
I think it is somewhat true that a number of us, who have ridden this dog into the ground, don't care any more..

..maybe that isn't entirely correct, but there is a profound sense of resignation now

The silly bastards at the helm for whatever reasons have managed to totally destroy any market interest in this asset

...and so far there is precious little to suggest that it will ever be worth any more that it is now

We have passed thru the period of caring, being intensely interested in every nuance that unfolded

..I watch it out of a macabre interest in watching dying things writhe

..the fact that it is my hopes and dreams on the death bed is not lost on me

..the reality that I am powerless to undo my errors of faith and judgement has been fully absorbed and manifests not so much in a sense of not caring but as simply in surrender



To: sense who wrote (9101)1/15/2015 9:15:29 PM
From: explorationguy5 Recommendations

Recommended By
dsikorsk
minder
radagast
Tap66
Theotokos

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10654
 
Can you explain what value it is that you perceive here that I and others are
missing ?
The metal defined in the FS has an intrinsic value that can be estimated by comparison with recent buyouts at the same stage of development. My estimate suggests that we are currently undervalued relative to my price model and I expect it will stay that way until Teck makes a clear indication about the future of SC. CUU handed over the keys to their destiny when they signed the JV, which only promises(according to the website) to " further explore and/or develop the Schaft Creek project ". There are plenty of examples of companies with deposits at the FS stage and less market cap then CUU, likely because the metal will have little market value until someone presents a plan to extract it from the ground. In the year and a half since the JV was signed we have been given no sign from Teck about their plans to do anything with SC, which I think explains the current share price. The market is risking the metal's intrinsic value against the uncertainty of Teck proceeding with development. There are at least two ways Teck could signal this project is on their radar. One is to book some reserves and another would be an announcement that they intend to file the EA once the scope of the project has been redefined in the optimization work. However, time and money are running out for CUU so they need a resolution on SC this year. The trade here, as I see it, is the likelihood Teck will send a positive signal on the project. The two possibilities I've suggested will not cost them any significant capital and in no way commit them to a production decision. It is the only opportunity I see with this stock and I expect I will have an answer by the end of March. At that point Teck will have released their revised reserves report and we will have whatever news is released from the next two JV meetings.



To: sense who wrote (9101)1/16/2015 9:57:41 AM
From: Tap66  Respond to of 10654
 
Hi Sense

The price here has declined... because the value has dropped. The value has dropped for at least two obvious reasons. One, and the most important, is because management is incompetent and has failed in creating value... and has instead destroyed it... and that fact has become increasingly obvious over time as mattering, even to people who didn't get it, before. Management trumps geology. The value in the rocks (if there is any) doesn't matter... if the management aren't capable of doing the right things to have that value be realized in a way that BENEFITS shareholders. The value in the rocks (if there is any) doesn't matter... if the management aren't capable of ensuring that value remains attached to the shares. I can see nothing in the way of change occurring here that suggests to me that the result produced by the management here thus far was a "one off"... So, to see any value existing here to justify taking a risk with a management whose judgment I know I can't trust, I need to have a reason to think management can succeed in the future... where they have not in the past. The other reason the price has declined... is because the market value of the underlying assets has been declining... even to the point that the "asset" clearly is not economically viable. In that context, baring change in management, or a changed performance by the management, the only thing that might work to move Copper Fox share prices higher... is a reversal in the price trend in copper. What has to happen for that to occur ? When is that likely to occur ?

I have to disagree with you here. If we were in the same economic environment as in 2011, we would not be sitting at 14 cents even with the problems as mentioned in your post. We would of course not be sitting happily at 2.50$, but the SP would perhaps high enough that many of us could (and would) say the hell with this and take a more reasonable loss then selling now at 90% or more.
I think that Dsikorsk has a point in saying that at this juncture if you have lost 95$ out of 100$ losing another 4$ would not bring on more stress to the unfortunate CUU investor who has no real choice other than hoping that the economic situation will eventually improve, even if it takes 5-10 years. Of course each investor has his own timeline and age plays a major role. Has long as we don't declare bankruptcy, we can always dream of many multiples from this point. What else can we really hope for. Our loss is not 'on paper' only anymore, it is quite real.

The market as a whole would be much higher and acquisitions would be done at more reasonable prices. We would can easily compare 52 weeks lows between lets say, 2011 to 2015.

Pat66