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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (11063)	12/18/1997 7:35:00 AM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12298

Don - << Personally I think something in the $2 range give or take .50 cents is more realistic for FY 98>> I'm sorry, but that's absolutely dreaming. WDC started shipping the 1.0GB TFI DDline in Jun 96, the 1.3GB/platter DD line Jan97. APM was making alot of $$ during those times. WDC no longer builds the 1GB family and is quickly ramping down the 1.3GB. During this time RDRT was concentrating on MR transition and APM was developing TFI products that incorporated undershoot reduction(around may96 I think). APM got the bulk of the WDC biz as a result because RDRT didn't come out with this feature fr their TFI heads until Dec96. The TFI rev went to APM. They won the battle for TFI heads with U/S reduction. Those days are over. APM is struggling with the transition to MR. They goofed on the 1.7GB TFI head(and were even talking about 2.1TFI!!) Have you really looked at their comments about the reasons for the 5% drop in GMs? That situation is nly going to get worse now that WDC is accelerating their transition to MR. What is not clear about this? I guess I just don't understand. Do you really think these ANALysts out there that have studied this biz and talk to all of the players(RDRT, WDC, QNTM, SEG, Maxtor, Fujitsu) that are not seeing APM in the high density quals are just making these #s up? I have a hunch most(if not all of them) know more about the business than you are I. Call SEG. Ask them who is in the running for the MR business from them. Ask specifically about APM. Think about the answer they give you. There is potentially $200mil/year in head rev just begging to be taken. Why are they not in those quals? Could it be because they can't make 2.8GB MR heads in volume. Surely not. They just don't need the business I guess. BTW, I'm not talking down the stock price. That's foolish folks. Nobody has that power on these threads. Yes, I am short. But I'm doing this to help myself learn about the DD business. We're all dreaming if we think we have the power to effect the price of ANY stock. Look back through all of my posts. I'm not saying anything that is not commonly known to most ANALysts out there. I'm not making this stuff up. The ($0.78) estimate may be low, but $0.50/Q is not possible. todd