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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13526)	12/17/1997 9:01:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, >The stock is going down for fundamental, and rational, reasons. But the depth of the downturn is determined by emotional, and therefore unpredictable, factors. We could see x1 sales. Or we could be forming the base now, and have a choppy but essentially horizontal stock movement for the next few months. I don't know. But I don't think I'm putting any new money into AMAT for a while.< In my previous post I quoted the Dorsey Wright SEMI sector percentiles as of last night Reply # of 13533, "DW NYSE Bull % at 57 today vrs 60.80 last week, OTC Bull % at 41.40 today vrs 48.50 last week, 10 week Bull % 47.10 today vrs 52.00 last week, and SEMI Bull % 14.50 today vrs 27.90 last week. The previous lows in SEMI Sector was 20% in 8/95, 16% in 1/96, 12% in 7/96, and todays % at 14.50%." If we look at SEMI'S and amat, statistically, the SEMI's in the oversold (BUY) area. Only twice before since 8/95 has the sector been equal to the 16% level or lower at the 12% level. If we look at the upside downside risk we have a far greater chance for gain vrs loss. The previous sector highs were at 88% in 6/95, 72% in 5/96, 70% in 10/96, and 78% in 7/97. IMHO, I would far rather buy, from a risk point of view, at these levels than at the 50% on an amat downtic. The odds are in our favor. Yes, the sector may go down further but the upside risk is far better. With the increasing number of funds getting into AMAT I think the turnaround is not to far away. What is interesting is that it appears that from one high to another high, since 7/95, appears to be approximately 8-10 months appart. Big Buck and Kumar, are there any significants to this high low cycles. Just my opinion. What are your thoughts? Paul V.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13526)	12/17/1997 9:03:00 PM
From: Lee Penick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I liked your post on margin vs leaps. Nice logical analysis. I may be mistaken, but believe you forgot to subtract the 5K in borrowed money from your final total in several of your margin cases. I saw where you took the interest into account, but not where you gave the money back. Am I wrong? Tito, how did you previously get 1900% with leaps? Lee