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To: 30 Years Plus who wrote (188361)1/26/2015 9:41:31 PM
From: Bearcatbob4 Recommendations

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Ben Smith
Bruce L
CommanderCricket
roguedolphin

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206325
 
Impressive amount of information to try to digest. Thank you for your commentary.

"And the one common thread - there was always more cheap money flowing into the business, and in many cases to its grave. Sure there were exceptions, but in aggregate, I often wonder if there has been a return on capital. Obviously in many cases there is not going to be a return of capital."

Let me ask you this. If the POO was still $120 - would not money be flowing in - even now that QE has ended? Perhaps when the POO was high it was one of the few ways to get a return on money - certainly one's bank account did not/and does not offer such. It is my contention that good returns - especially when few other opportunities are available will find capital. Now - it is certainly true that many of the returns did not materialize.

Finally, your comment below reflects what I believe will end this mess sooner rather than later.

"Central banking policy has morphed into something that we will not know the full impact of until a catastrophe unfolds. IMHO, the misallocation of capital in the O&G business is unprecedented. The damage done to the world's most important commodity cannot be understated; the effect this correction is going to have on sovereign entities alone is frightening. "

I cannot believe that sovereign entities will not get together and remove the surplus from the market. The wild card in the equation is the true motive of the Saudis. Is it simply to force cooperation so that they do not have to be the sole swing producer - or is it economic warfare on the Iranians/Russians.

Whatever, it will be interesting to watch.

Don't be a stranger.

Bob



To: 30 Years Plus who wrote (188361)1/26/2015 11:03:09 PM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 206325
 
Money was too cheap - way too cheap. I am saying once money is no longer cheap and it is going to be even less cheap and the shale deflates and the guys don't get it.

The Arabs are playing a waiting game...