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To: KM who wrote (40349)	12/17/1997 5:43:00 PM
From: Brent D. Beal	Respond to of 58324

I not so convinced that Asia is going to self-destruct, although I think you're right that it isn't over. What I'm concerned about is the appreciation of dollars against all these other currencies--doesn't that mean cheaper imports? At least in the short-run (next 6 months, maybe a year) I don't see how a lot of companies are going to be able to hold their margins, which means, at least to me, that earnings may not be so rosy the next couple of quarters. If this happens, then the shit will really hit the fan. There is no way any of the major indexes as going to be able to hold their current levels with declining earnings--if this type of a scenario develops, the Nasdaq could easily be back down around 1000 in my opinion, which would still give it a fairly rich average p/e.

To: KM who wrote (40349)	12/17/1997 5:48:00 PM
From: Michael Coley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58324

RE: Why am I expecting a rally? OFF TOPIC >> >> [MC:] I'm expecting to see a major rally in the first few weeks of the year.<< << >> [T:] Based on? I'm just waiting for the next Asia blowup. It ain't over yet (IMO). << Based on history. Most of the stocks that I have followed take hits in December and rise again in January. Could be one of several things: 1) People selling for tax reasons in December, then buying back 30 days later in January. 2) People who invest quarterly and/or annually buying in January. 3) Renewed optimism as we start a new year. This year, there are several other possibilities: 4) Effects of a possible interest rate decrease. 5) Reversal of the current bearish sentiment. People have really lowered their expectations (for this quarter, anyway). As companies meet or exceed those lowered expectations, people will get excited again. I really don't know, though. The market isn't a logical thing that can be predicted with much accuracy (at least for me). One thing that I think is good right now is the balance between bulls and bears. When everyone is bullish, I worry (and sometimes sell). When everyone is bearish, I worry (and usually buy). With the current balance, I'm encouraged that things aren't too far out of whack either way. - Michael Coley - i1.net