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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (2541)	12/17/1997 6:38:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

<..but the speed on cable is shared and therefore inconsistent..> These issues have been discussed. Cable is fully capable of providing 1-4Mbps downstream, without decrement, since they only need to add another branch as more customers sign on. Many cables are currently doing this, and no doubt, will CONTINUE to do so. <.. to say nothing of insecure..> This has been answered a number of times. Cables simply encrypt to keep transmissions secure. This is working as we speak. <..It's also one-way in the older systems (costly upgrades necessary or you must use a telephone line for upstream)..> These upgrades to HFC and CO DLC's is per customer LESS costly than a ADSL phone install - where the quality of each line needs to be tested, and load coils and excessive bridge taps found and removed. A telco field engineer estimated an average of about 40 man-hours to find the problems on a line. About 30-40% of all copper lines have such problems - and for the most part- telcos don't know WHICH 30-40%. <..and cable companies aren't as reliable as telcos in terms of service...> They definitely don't have the reputation, but with the billions being invested (by Gates) and the many more billions to be made, wanna bet they are getting their act together? <..Once telcos get ADSL deployed --- most quote 1.5Mbps for initial rollouts --- they'll not only offer constant speeds, they'll put their reputations behind their products for installation and service....> At a cost purportedly significantly higher than for what cables can offer the same or better. Including your own IP address. <.. Don't forget, with ADSL you can use your fax, phone, Internet, and video, all on the same line at the same time...> And with cable, you can use your IP connection for fax, internet, video (revenues from more cable channels will ALSO offset HFC deployment costs, even if some customers do NOT want internet access) and cables will likely soon be providing data telephony. <..The main question is when will the telcos deploy?..> First of all, IMO, likely AFTER the Supreme court hears the appeal regarding unbundling of ILEC bundles to CLECs (at least a year). But the combination of costs and uncertainty of line conditions make this a challenging field. Will ADSL sell? Of course. Will it beat HFC cable for cost/quality in the urban regions where it competes? I would doubt it. But you knew all that. My 2 cents- Steve