Kathleen Fisher is the Chief Financial Officer.
The fact that she was very up-beat confirms my suspicion that we
may well be having a very good quarter indeed.
This thought stems from one comment Del Yocam made to Bruce Francis
during his CNBC interview.
It relates to the figure of 47% being the client/server-enterprise
% of total sales. I think he was refering to likely '97 results.
As this was down from 55% in Q2, I initally felt a bit disappointed.
However, on reflection, I think it is probably indicative of
something completely different.
The drop-off is NOT a decline in C/S sales but rather a result of
very good sales from the rest.
Remember DY has already made a Press Release on how good JBuilder
sales have been. Often, in the past, BORL has received a lot of
buying (late May 1996 for example) anticipating good results, only
to have these dashed by warnings or reality. Maybe, this will be
the one time when the opposite, weak retail selling, will result
in a positive warning sometime in early Jan.
Here is my analysis.
1. No increase in C/S sales during Q3.
Sales % Client Server Rest
Q1 41,970,000 .47 19,725,900 22,244,100
Q2 42,500,000 .55 23,375,000 + 18.5% 19,125,000 - 14.0%
Q3 ??? 56,968,085 23,375,000 33,593,085
1997 141,438,085 .47 66,475,900 74,962,185
2. Decline in C/S sales to that of Q1.
Q1 41,970,000 .47 19,725,900 22,244,100
Q2 42,500,000 .55 23,375,000 + 18.5% 19,125,000 - 14.0%
Q3 ??? 49,204,043 19,725,900 29,478,143
1997 133,674,043 .47 62,826,800 70,847,243
3. David Miller's estimate of 43M.
Q1 41,970,000 .47 19,725,900 22,244,100
Q2 42,500,000 .55 23,375,000 + 18.5% 19,125,000 - 14.0%
Q3 ??? 43,000,000 16,810,000 - 28.1% 26,190,000
1997 127,470,000 .47 59,910,900 67,559,100
I think 3. is very unlikely. In fact, I see no reason to assume that
C/S sales have not themselves increased.
However, if so, the numbers become so bullish that one does not wish
to seem really way out.(e.g. 7% increase to 25M gives sales of 60M).
If anyone on the thread is close to a security analyst, I would be
most interested in receiving a reaction on the above.
Anyway YOU ALL I thought it was about time someone tried to perk up
things around here.
To all us holders of Jan 10's, we may not be dead yet. |
