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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (51291)	2/3/2015 9:26:10 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67962

Will history repeat itself? The chase by Frances Horodelski: Seasonality and history [UTF-8?]havenâ€™t been particularly useful in recent years but an interesting statistic is standing out (HT Art Cashin at UBS). Apparently, this January was only the 8th time since 1929 that the market has dropped after three or more years of gains in stock prices. The previous seven times, the market has fallen on the year an average of 14.8% and a recession has ensued. For you history buffs, the previous years were 1953, 1957, 1973, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2008. My own market experience had me live through four of the seven and my recollection is that they all were affected by something different [UTF-8?]â€“ what will it be this time? Or will history not repeat? If you want to follow the billionaire money, I note that Nelson [UTF-8?]Peltzâ€™s Trian Management has recently upped his position in Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and now holds 2.59%. In other activist shareholder moves, Starboard Value (recently targeting Darden Restaurants) may be getting what it wants with Staples (SPLS) and Office Depot (ODP) as the Wall Street Journal notes that the two companies are in advanced talks for a combined market value of $15.1 billion (both stocks are up in pre-market trading with ODP +18%). No comment from the companies. In the news this morning we have oil holding its recent gains (the price remains below the 50, 100 and 200 dma with the 50 at $55.87); Ukraine bracing for more attacks as a key town Debaltseve, a key railway crossing between Donetsk and Luhansk, is evacuated, a Ukrainian military plane is downed over Donetsk and the U.S. considers arming government forces (according to news reports yesterday); WestJet reported results that, while strong year over year (+14%) were light of the street at 70 cents vs 74 cents estimate. The dividend was hiked by two cents, in line with expectations. Three-D printer Stratysys is getting smacked (down 26%) this morning on a 2015 outlook of $1.97-$2.03 versus its previous outlook of $225 and the [UTF-8?]streetâ€™s $2.88. It is taking 3D Printing down with it. On the other hand, oil stocks in the UK (Royal Dutch Shell and BP) are both strong on continued oil strength and [UTF-8?]BPâ€™s results of profit of $2.24 billion (versus $1.63 billion expected). Markets around the world are up with the exception of Tokyo which is under some pressure because the yen continues to retreat from its 121.46 low in early December and is now trading closer to 117.5. Some FX traders are suggesting this might be where the next hiccup occurs. Chinese stocks however are lifting nicely on reserve-requirement ratio (RRR) will be cut to support the weaker than expected economy. Another currency to watch [UTF-8?]â€“ the remnimbi has been softening recently (down 2.4% from its recent high and down 3.5% over the past year). And the Aussie did a CAD drop today (down 1%+) on the [UTF-8?]RBAâ€™s surprising 25 bp cut. Today we have talking Fed heads (non-voters Bullard, a hawk and Kocherlakota, a dove). According to [UTF-8?]Scotiaâ€™s FX desk, the first Fed hike is priced in for October 28 [UTF-8?]â€“ moving out from August previously. Greece seems to be moving to the back burner as the country appears to retreat from its write down position allowing European equities to continue their rally. The German DAX is the best performing of the major markets this year (+11.7%) as it remains the biggest beneficiary of a united Europe. On the analysts front, downgrades include Michael Kors (KORS) to hold with a new $76 target; a lowered target price on Manitoba Tel at Canaccord (now $25 had been $29) as the analyst ruminates on a dividend cut in 2015; DH Corporation (DH) upgraded to outperform at RBC (with a $44 target vs $39 previously); BMO upgrades Tenet Healthcare (THC) to outperform with a $50 target. Got to go [UTF-8?]â€“ lots to do. [UTF-8?]Itâ€™s your money month and today [UTF-8?]weâ€™re going to look at the differences between on Canadians look at the various assets versus American investors. Also [UTF-8?]weâ€™ll look at debt vs. RRSP contribution. We also have a [UTF-8?]â€œplanes, trains and [UTF-8?]automobilesâ€ special at 11 am eastern. This afternoon, [UTF-8?]weâ€™ll look at how one of every five energy companies are eying job cuts. Alberta and Saskatchewan are focused on reduced revenues given the price of commodities, especially oil. [UTF-8?]Thatâ€™s our Top Line today. *The author is a holder of Staples. Every morning Business Day Host Frances Horodelski writes a "chase note" to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that willbe in the spotlight that day. Click here to have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins.