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To: TLindt who wrote (859)12/17/1997 10:59:00 PM
From: chirodoc  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1546
 
off topic

<<<<<Doc I'd like your opinion on gold stocks...

.........using round numbers: the amount of gold produced and sold each year equals about 5 tons.

.......the amount of gold in central banks + people's private reserve equals about 50 tons.

.......a lot of the owners of the gold, banks and indiviuals know that gold is a risky investment and pays poorer returns than stocks, bonds, and real estate. that is why any pop up in gold prices has brought sellers out of the woodwork.

.......central banks, especially the EU, have decided that they don;t need gold anymore and they are sitting on about 25 tons and are waiting for the right time to unload it.

.......assuming the price stays low for a awhile, the banks have sold all they want and a lot of mines have shut down i would join you.

.....but for now i just think about those 50 tons ready to come on the market and don't see a lot of upside in a deflationary environment. if inflation picks up that would obviously be bullish.

......summary: it might make sense to have a very small percent in gold but don't bet the farm until the fundamentals pick up. the last rally (look at the charts of gold rise) lasted 3 years--you can see it go up for a few months and still have lots of time to get in.