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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tejek who wrote (835732)2/10/2015 1:57:46 PM
From: i-node3 Recommendations

Recommended By
FJB
gamesmistress
TideGlider

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1576807
 
>> And when Nate says it, you know its factually true. ;)

So, when Nate says it, it isn't just weather, it is actually climate. Right?

Nate downloaded the data from the same source as everyone else (including you) could.

What Nate doesn't tell you -- and he knows it so he could have -- is that there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING you can do to make 100 years weather or climate data tell you whether something constitutes a meaningful trend, and whether it is "caused by" humans or just the normal, ordinary variations of weather and/or climate patterns.

In his article "Nate" says that AGW is a "plausible" explanation. This is a value judgment that "Nate" isn't really any more equipped than you or me to make. I can say, for example, that normal variations in weather patterns are a "plausible" explanation and I would be just as correct.

"Nate" said:

"In only 0.2 percent of the simulations (out of 1 million trials) did I wind up with at least five of these days having occurred since 2000."

I would point out that in playing the game of video poker, the probability of a single hand ending in a Royal Flush is about 0.000025. Yet, people still hit them. Furthermore, I have hit 3 in a single day of playing. I have also gone two full years -- with many thousands of video poker hands -- without hitting a one. So, even unusual events happen, and when the variance is high enough, they can even form subclusters on the tails of probability distributions. I would tell any person that it is not "plausible" to expect multiple Royal Flushes in a day of play. Yet, it happens with some frequency.

"Nate" is not being dishonest, but he is providing you with an ever-so-slight tinge of bias; just enough to make those who really don't comprehend numbers lean one direction or the other.



To: tejek who wrote (835732)2/10/2015 3:33:09 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1576807
 
January was warm and dry overall for the contiguous U.S. despite coolness across parts of South and Northeast

National Summary Information - January 2015

Climate Monitoring State of the Climate BAMS State of the Climate Temp, Precip, and Drought Climate at a Glance Extremes Societal Impacts Snow and Ice Teleconnections GHCN Monthly Monitoring References

The State of the Climate Summary Information is a synopsis of the collection of national and global summaries released each month.

Report:

Year: Month:

National Summary Information - January 2015

See Full Report


Maps and Graphics Temperature and Precipitation Ranks

U.S. Percentage Areas

Very Warm/Very Cold Very Wet/Very DryMore Information Climate at a Glance U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) Climatological Rankings
For extended analysis of regional temperature and precipitation patterns,as well as extreme events, please see our full report that will be released on February 11th.



Significant climate events for January 2015

January was warm and dry overall for the contiguous U.S. despite coolness across parts of the South and Northeast During January, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 33.0°F, 2.9°F above the 20th century average. This ranked as the 24th warmest January in the 1895-2015 record and marked the warmest January since 2012. The average contiguous U.S. precipitation was 1.75 inches, 0.56 inch below average, and ranked as the 18th driest January in the 121-year record. Most of the Lower 48 was drier than average, with drought worsening in parts of the West and Midwest.

U.S. climate highlights: January 2015




January 2015 Statewide Temperature (top)
and Precipitation (bottom) ranks

Locations from the West Coast, through the Intermountain West, and into the Northern Plains were warmer than average, where seven states California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming — had a top 10 warm January. No state was record warm for the month. Parts of the Southern Plains and Northeast were cooler than average while no state had a top 10 cool January.According to preliminary data, during January, there were 3,499 warm daily temperature records broken or tied (1,906 warm maximum and 1,593 warm minimum), compared to 775 cool daily temperature records broken or tied (441 cool maximum and 334 cool minimum).Most areas of the U.S. were drier than average, especially the West, Central Plains, and Midwest, where four states — California, Nebraska, Oregon, and Wyoming — had a top 10 dry January. The Southern Rockies and Plains and the coastal Mid-Atlantic were wetter than average, but no state had a monthly precipitation value ranking among their 10 wettest.California had its fourth driest January, with 15 percent of average monthly precipitation. This was the third consecutive Januarywith much-below-average precipitation for the state, which is typically the wettest month of the year. Several cities in northern California were record dry, including San Francisco, which received no measureable precipitation in January for the first time on record. January is also climatologically the wettest month of the year for San Francisco, according to the 1981-2010 normals.According to analysis of NOAA data by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the January contiguous U.S. snow cover extent was 1.3 million square miles, 75,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average. This marked the 18th smallest January snow cover extent in the 49-year period of record. Despite the below-average monthly snow cover extent, a powerful Nor'easter impacted the East Coast in late January, bringing blizzard conditions and coastal flooding to New England. Boston, Massachusetts, received 24.4 inches of snow, the sixth highest single-storm snowfall total for the city. The storm was rated a Category 3 ("Major") for the Northeast, based on the Regional Snowfall Index that considers both the snow amount and population affected across the region.According to the February 3rd U.S. Drought Monitor report, 28.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down slightly from 28.7 percent at the end of December. Drought conditions worsened across parts of the West, Central Rockies, Midwest, and Ohio River Valley. Drought conditions improved in parts of the interior Northwest, Southern Plains, Southwest, and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Drought conditions also worsened for much of the Hawaiian Islands.

ncdc.noaa.gov

For extended analysis of regional temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as extreme events, please see our full report that will be released on February 11th.



To: tejek who wrote (835732)2/10/2015 10:31:31 PM
From: joseffy1 Recommendation

Recommended By
FJB

  Respond to of 1576807
 
The Whoppers of Hillary and Obama Dwarf Anything Brian Williams Has Said