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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (42639)	12/17/1997 10:50:00 PM
From: lbs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

"I don't think you should be giving any stock advise. That is only my humble opinion." But you felt it was ok to advise someone who asked a very sharp and resonable question to take it to another thread. If PE is too difficult a concept for you, that does not mean that it is vodoo. In fact, it is an incredibly simple concept that has more to do with fundamentals, than with technical analysis. I would try to explain it to you, but it is clearly over your head By the way, who made you the police-woman of the thread.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (42639)	12/17/1997 11:26:00 PM
From: Charles Skeen	Respond to of 186894

Re: IMO, Todtman's suggestion that an analysis of data from the past ten years could somehow predict Intel's future is at best an exercise in futility. At its worst, it is deception. Mary, you are simply on the wrong wavelength. Go back and read Todtman's message! He was not talking about technical analysis at all but good old fundamentals, i.e., applying historical p/e's to projected earnings. What can be more fundamental than this type of analysis -- used for the past 50 years or more by Value Line, for instance, not to mention Graham and Dodd (and a few others you probably never heard of). Please read and think before you go rapping away at your keyboard -- you will save a lot of us a lot of time! Charlie.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (42639)	12/17/1997 11:35:00 PM
From: Jurgen	Respond to of 186894

Mary, you mix up TA and FA. P/E ratios have nothing to do with technical analysis or forward-looking voodoo. It's mere valuation: price is what you pay and value is what you get - intel's value might be a little low for the price you pay. What is a company's 'value' ? If we forget about assets, cash, receivables etc. for the moment(book value), the only value that remains is its ability to make money, normally shown in earnings per share (EPS). If a company's EPS is 0 or less forever, it has no value ! If it loses money now, but might have earnings in the future, than its value is measured in forwardlooking EPS, discounted at risk. The current price of a share is the market's opinion about the future EPS of a company. The whole stock market does nothing but look into the future - present and past does not count !! What has that to do with INTC ? The market used to believe that INTCs EPS growth rate and future earnings would rise more and more - but now the growth rate is falling (last 5 years avg. 30% - next years way lower ) and so is the price. The market reexamines INTCs value - let's wait and see what the result is Good luck 5speed

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (42639)	12/18/1997 12:13:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Respond to of 186894

>IMO, Todtman's suggestion that an analysis of data from the past ten >years could somehow predict Intel's future is at best an exercise in >futility. At its worst, it is deception. Ah, now I understand why you wrote that stuff about voodoo (I love that word) and "psuedo" etc. In my post, I did not suggest that past data would _predict_ the future. Read it again. Actually, I am interested in the simple question of whether the current p/e is historically high or whatever. To quote from O'Shaughnessy's research, "Buying high PE stocks, is a dangerous endeavor. You shouldn't let the flash of the latest glamour stock draw you in." In my post, I simply was attmping to determine what the investing public has historically considered high vs. low for Intel. Consider the S&P 500 for example. In that index, a p/e of 20 or 21 has historically been just about all it will give. For example, if company earnings flatten out at that p/e level, the index has generally pulled back. I don't know if this sort of thinking is predicting the behaviour of the S&P 500 but it's useful to pay attention to as it may help guide purchase/sell decisions. IMHO. Since when is an interest in history "voodoo?" Regards, David