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Biotech / Medical : Amgen Inc. (AMGN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Stamp who wrote (425)	1/4/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1906

YEAREND - Biotech to be more of a picker's game By Ransdell Pierson 12-29-97 NEW YORK, Dec 29 (Reuters) - In 1998 biotech will become even more of a stock-picker's game amid likely continued underperformance in the over-all sector, but expected solid strides by some of its 300 publicly traded U.S. companies, analysts said. ''Growth in the sector in 1997 has been disappointing -- a goose-egg,'' said Morgan Stanley analyst Doug Lind, as reflected by a three-percent fall in the Nasdaq Biotech Index and an eight percent rise in the Morgan Stanley Biotech Index. U.S. drug companies rose over 50 percent in 1997 while the S&P 500 Index jumped 27 percent. ''I think the biotech sector will continue to underperform in 1998. Most products will fail and many companies will fail. There will be big winners and big losers, but the net effect will probably be dead-in-the-water zero growth,'' Lind said, adding investors should tread warily in the always volatile sector. ''Investors will have to be selective,'' he said, adding that players unwilling or unable to do their homework on individual biotech companies would be better advised to invest in a biotech mutual fund. Karl Thiel, managing editor of BioVenture View newsletter, said one of the most striking developments in 1997 was that individual biotech companies began clearly to rise and fall on their own merits. By contrast, he said biotech stocks in previous years tended to move in concert with sector leaders such as Amgen Inc (Nasdaq:AMGN - news), Chiron Corp (Nasdaq:CHIR - news) and Biogen Inc (Nasdaq:BGEN - news). ''If one of the leaders went up or down, it would pull the whole sector with it. But that's not happening anymore as the sector moves toward maturity,'' he said, adding that valuations of traditional leaders had fallen or edged only negligibly higher in 1997. Meanwhile, some smaller companies such as Transkaryotic Therapies Inc (Nasdaq:TKTX - news), MedImmune Inc (Nasdaq:MEDI - news) and Immunex Corp (Nasdaq:IMNX - news) have seen their valuations double or triple in 1997 on positive developments, including initiation or progress in clinical trials. And other development-stage companies -- including DepoTech Corp (Nasdaq:DEPO - news), AutoImmune Inc (Nasdaq:AIMM - news) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:AMLN - news) -- saw their valuations topple on failed clinical trials or regulatory setbacks. UBS Securities analyst Eric Schmidt agreed that a sea change in 1997 was the ''decoupling'' of the fortunes of sector leaders and smaller biotechs. ''Stocks that had bad news saw price corrections, but they didn't pull the whole group into malaise. That was evident for the first time in 1997 and will continue.'' Schmidt said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had approved 20 new biotech products so far in 1997, nosing ahead of the 19 approved in 1996. The Biotechnology Industry Organization -- whose more limited criteria include vaccines, monoclonal antibodies and products made by recombinant technology, but exclude medical devices -- counted nine new FDA approvals in 1997 versus 11 in 1996. Schmidt predicted that BioChem Pharma Inc (Toronto:BCH.TO - news; Nasdaq:BCHE - news) was well on its way to becoming a new sector leader thanks largely to the success of its anti-HIV drug, the reverse transcriptase inhibitor 3TC. He noted the drug, whose chemical name is lamivudine, had also shown efficacy in clinical trials against Hepatitis B and would likely be launched for that indication in China by marketing partner Glaxo Wellcome Plc (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: GLXO.L) in the first quarter of 1998. Schmidt said Gilead Sciences Inc (Nasdaq:GILD - news) was another emerging leader, adding that data from Phase III trials of its influenza drug, the neuraminidase inhibitor GS 4104, were expected by the end of 1998. Roche Holding AG (OTC BB:ROHHY - news; ROCZg.S) is its marketing partner for the drug. Thiel said another development seen in 1997 and likely to continue in 1998 was the increased difficulty of U.S. biotech companies to obtain financing for ongoing operations and to launch initial public offerings. ''People are confused what to invest in within biotech because the companies are more confusing,'' he said, with investors having a difficult time mastering arcane subject matter such as bioinformatics and functional genomics. But financing has become more readily available in Europe, he added, ''where people are hungry to invest'' in a biotech sector having far fewer publicly traded companies than the more-mature U.S. group. Schmidt said passage of legislation in 1997 reforming the FDA would bode well for some U.S. biotech companies, especially one provision allowing companies to promote ''off-label'' uses of already marketed drugs. Off-label use refers to the use of a drug for indications other than those for which the drug was originally approved by the FDA -- for example, prescriptions by doctors of a breast cancer drug for treatment of lung cancer. The off-label provision goes into effect in late 1998. Schmidt said it would allow drug companies to steer doctors toward other uses of their drugs as long as the companies are conducting research in the new indications and publish related data in peer-reviewed journals. Under the existing scheme, he said cash-strapped biotech companies must first complete time-consuming and expensive Phase III efficacy trials on new indications and then wait another year for FDA marketing approval. The new provision, however, will allow them to quickly derive revenues from new uses of the drugs which can be used to finance ongoing clinical trials. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ More Quotes and News: Amgen Inc (Nasdaq:AMGN - news)Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:AMLN - news)AutoImmune Inc (Nasdaq:AIMM - news)BioChem Pharma Inc (Nasdaq:BCHE - news; Toronto:BCH.TO - news)Biogen Inc (Nasdaq:BGEN - news)Chiron Corp (Nasdaq:CHIR - news)Depotech Corp (Nasdaq:DEPO - news)Gilead Sciences Inc (Nasdaq:GILD - news)Immunex Corp (Nasdaq:IMNX - news)Medimmune Inc (Nasdaq:MEDI - news)Roche Holding AG (OTC BB:ROHHY - news)Transkaryotic Therapies Inc (Nasdaq:TKTX - news) Related News Categories: US Market News, biotech, health, medical/pharmaceutical ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Help <Picture: [ Yahoo! ]> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Copyright c 1997 Reuters Limited. 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To: D. Stamp who wrote (425)	1/4/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 1906

TA: AMGN was in a horizontal trading range of 54 to 65 for 2 1/2 years (early 1995 to August 1997). It bounced repeatedly in the 53-55 area. Then, in August, it broke (on heavy volume) decisively through the former support level. Breaking such a strong long-term support level implies a large move down. Since then, it has crept back up to the 54 level, and bumped against it 4 times in Nov. and Dec. 1997, without being able to break above it. The former strong support level has become an equally strong resistance level. The inability to move above 54 confirms that we are in a downward trend. Furthermore, the move upward recently was made on steadily falling volume. A bullish move up should occur on rising volume. AMGN is completing a pennant formation. These usually end with an abrupt resumption of the previous trend. AMGN at 35 in 1998.