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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: purecntry5 who wrote (11826)	12/18/1997 1:54:00 AM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

RE: Im with you. I never heard of a crash or bear market come with bands playing and horns sounding. I been very bearish since September but am now doing some soul searching. EVERYONE expects fall/crash/bear...Unless this is the FIRST time on history the bear comes with bells on... Im not buying it. Good Luck and Happy Holidays. *** Bears don't blow horns. They hiss like leaky tires and sneak up on you... What happens if earnings warnings keep coming and earnings really DO drop and/or growth slows? Do you buy and keep reachings higher PE's? Forget about everyone else. Do you, Cowboy, really think earnings will be that much better in 98? They had better be. It doesn't do any good to be a contrarian, if the majority is right. (assuming that bears really are the majority). B.

To: purecntry5 who wrote (11826)	12/18/1997 12:03:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Now hold on there cowboy, I believe a bear can happen when many expect it because of the unprecedented insanity of this mkt. Based on fundamentals there is no reason for the fundamentalist to capitulate as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate. Much of the new era propaganda is being exposed for what it is-nonsense. The SE Asia economic miracle now appears to be a repeat of the Japanese Bubble economy. The quality of reported earnings clearly shows that the major factors boosting earnings growth wil not have the same impact on growth going forward. Specificly, lower interest expense,lower tax rates,options accounting, lower depreciation expenses, other accounting gimmickry. I am not saying these factors have disappeared but there impact of earnings GROWTH is largely spent. While the bears have every reason to be frustrated there is no fundamental reason to capitulate as our case gets stronger on a daily basis. For the technicians who can navigate through this mine field good luck and God Bless you have my respect and admiration. Mike