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To: Berney who wrote (1568)	12/18/1997 5:16:00 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

re: "Nonetheless, INTC IMHO is the tech sector. " V friends, good morning to all earlybirds having survived this disappointing yesterday. This is a good moment for me to answere Berneys question about my "strategies": Please reserve me a corner-seat in the waiting-room for contra-indicators. Hallo, Janko, hallo, Bob. Nonetheless, while I was out yesterday at our beautyful bar-restaurant "Critisize", where you can get the BY FAR best "Flammekuchen" (try it when you stay here!), I KNEWED that something is running wrong. Maybe Harald helped me to understand WHAT is going wrong - and I will try to expand on it here for all of you who are patient enough to read my stammering. It's evident for me that the rest of the world must be wrong. Cause, if not, I myself would be wrong, and this is not allowed. This is forbidden since Golden Gate has been painted red so that I cannot jump from the bridge anymore. After this premisse - concurrent a lession in logic - I can continue with the sentence of my message. Why are so many investors so pessimistic in hitech? Some possible thoughts "especially for you" (can you hear the music, Steve?): I. There are professional gamblers: When I was a mm, holding legions of tech-stocks long and had a lot of tech-calls written, coming January would be the most loved appointment in my live. (better than a announced visit of my womens mother - I hope, she hasn't got internet in the meantime, and Kristin beeing worse than me with English cannot understand the term bitch) Serious again: first such a mm would try to disturb every positive tendence announcing ridicule earnings and second he would sell against starting uptrends. It's not the worst time to sell in a bearish tech-sentiment. NEVER he would buy during a rally, right? For everybody who's written calls, THE TREND IS HIS BEST ENEMY. II. There exist a certain, not ignorable number of brainpoor, conservative people - what would they do? 1. they don't know that indices are derivated from executed trades and not vice versa. (obviously the term "index" is a lie.) 2. they don't know that a "tech-sector" is also a cheat: it's meaningless to combine competing companies to a group. It's twice stupid in a group (grin), where a natural revolving-process is running, during that "new" companies take place for "old" companies. So they react on warnings of losers cause they don't understand that these warnings are recommandations for the winners. 3. they don't understand fundmanagers as their natural enemys. It's probable that profs are breaking every rule now as in history while private-investors are reading their lips. Why should a mm give out a warning BEFORE he's sold out with that stock? N E V E R. 4. they don't understand, that technical tools only can describe what happened and neither why it has happened nor give a however useful fundamental probabiliy what will happen - even not for the first minute after the next new information. 5. they don't understand the difference between periodic events and chaotic (for our level of understanding) market-histories. They believe in a 100-year-calendar for weather-forcast and in statistic elaborations for assuming where f.e. MS will go today. This could be continued, but instead here's the common law WHY: hope. We all hope to find laws, mathematics, statistics or simple friendly prof-guys in CNBC who can help us to decide what and when we shall do (ignoring their own contrarian interests). It's the same kind of hope a rich grandma has that their young lover is not interested in her money. III. There is the endless fight of fear against patience: 1. to do what all other people seem to do can give us a (wrong!)feeling of safety. So we do something things even though we knew it better. 2. we love our money. When we don't buy (or sell), we SEE our money, it seems to be everytime available - we don't see the lost money (it was lost BEFORE) or the not gained money. Having cash gives us a place in our personal "comfort zone". 3. we want to win QUICKLY. Some of us trend to buy TOO short calls, trend to realize TOO soon, trend to go in BEFORE markets are really down. (I take a break for a memory-minute in front of a mirror.) 4. we are not free to decide using our brain. Our lifepartners come in with the last account-statement in their hands (neither ballz nor money). We get a margin-call from our broker. We need to have something incredible important like Porsches and must make cash. After that much stuff most of you have their own thoughts since a long while. Maybe you let me share your ideas in a friendly moment of eternity. So I will stop this here with a citat, a well known German business-journalist likes to say: "Der Pessimist ist der einzige Mist auf dem nichts wachsen kann" (a pessimist is the single mess on which nothing can grow) Let's see if Jan, 13th is "soon" or Jan, 17th will have been "too soon". Jury

To: Berney who wrote (1568)	12/18/1997 8:51:00 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

>>LHSG ... did I get the PE right 193.5!!! Wow!!<< Well, first thing my ma told me about stocks was "never buy anything with PE above 15". But then other kinds of girls surfaced up. Take SAP: I guess it must be somewhere at 60. Every time I drive by their Waldorf headquarters (10:00 pm on #5 going south) the light are on all over the place and the hair on my neck bristles:"Go ahead, make my day..." The general idea of sticking to the average P/E reflects the fact we'd rather be average than sorry. But hey, what about the future cash flow? Isn't that what we are buying - hopefully neatly discounted, like in INTC case? Hint re LHSG - German Telecom is slashing prices by cca 30% come March 98. Somebody must be breathing down tjheir neck. Must be LHSG' customers - collecting [name connection timeoftheday length] information on the customers' calls and profiling us down to the bone to offer us tailored products and beat the competion into pulp. Janko

To: Berney who wrote (1568)	12/18/1997 11:33:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Berney; RE:" the tax loss selling will occur right after Christmas " ...that is interesting, Berney - as the resident expert in that field, we trust your judgement. Please, your comments on the TYX.X index (Long Bond), and AXP, TRV and similar stocks in particular. What is your outlook (for the next few weeks) on the bond market ? Because technically, it appears over-bought; and many suspect that the BOJ has (or will) initiated some selling of US Treasuries as well as selling USD for YEN. merci -Steve