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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Caroline who wrote (2266)12/18/1997 7:53:00 AM
From: Rob L.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6317
 
Caroline, I will bet that Fenton cites something like A/R being a problem. He is just spewing garbage. Normally I listen very closely to the skeptics, but Fenton has never really offered anything of substance about JBIL. I fou follow his picks, he is 1 for 4. He advocated buying PSIX at 8, now at 5 3/4, shorting AOC at at least 50, now at 55 and still climbing, at buy ABTE at 9 or 10, now at 7 1/4. He also advocated shorting JBIL at 44 or so pre-split. The stock went to 140 presplit before coming down. So if you choose to listen to Fenton, be careful and do your own DD.

You gave the CC number so I assumed you listened to it. What was your impression? Mine was very positive and the questioners seemed to go away with confidence. New client Gateway added, though it won't be a 10% customer for the foreseeable future. It still represents progress and it is good that new contracts are being added as it will spread their risk around.

Here is some more food for thought!

=Electronics Contractors Up;Outsourcing Trend Cited

Dow Jones News Service via Dow Jones


By Nancy Fonti


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of electronics contract manufacturing companies
rose Wednesday, boosted by the heavy outsourcing trend among original equipment
manufacturers and solid earnings reported by two companies in the industry,
analysts said.

Shares of CMC Industries Inc. (CMCI) recently traded at 11 1/2, up 3/4 or 7%,
on Nasdaq volume of 44,900 shares, compared with average daily volume of 65,300.
Shares of Hadco Corp. (HDCO) recently traded at 47, up 3 or 6.8%, on Nasdaq
volume of 214,899 shares, compared with average daily volume of 377,800 shares.

Sanmina Holdings Inc. (SANM) recently traded at 65, up 3 13/16 or 6.2%, on
Nasdaq volume of 765,300 shares, compared with average daily volume of 454,600
shares.

Because there is some uncertainty in the end markets for technology companies,
OEMs such as Hewlett-Packard Co. (HWP), 3Com Corp. (COMS) and International
Business Machines Corp. (IBM) see greater benefits from outsourcing, said Keith
Dunne of BancAmerica Robertson Stephens.

Analyst Jeffrey Lin of NationsBanc Montgomery Securities agreed and added that
outsourcing helps OEMs protect profit margins, manage inventories and produce
products more efficiently.

Lin estimates that the electronics contract manufacturing industry is growing
annually by about 25%, while the electronics industry has an annual growth rate
of only 8% to 10%. "These companies can do well even if their customers aren't
doing well because their market share is growing," Lin said.

Analysts said industry stocks also were boosted by strong earnings reported
recently by Jabil Circuit Inc. (JBIL) and Solectron Corp. (SLR).

On Tuesday, Jabil reported first-quarter earnings of 49 cents a share,
compared with year-ago earnings of 23 cents a share. A First Call consensus of
nine analysts had expected the company to earn 48 cents a share. Jabil's stock
recently traded at 42 3/8, up 4 3/8 or 11.5%, on Nasdaq volume of 2.6 million
shares, compared with average daily volume of 1.2 million shares.

On Monday, Solectron reported first-quarter earnings of 38 cents a share,
compared with year-ago earnings of 29 cents a share. The earnings missed an
estimate of 40 cents a share by a First Call consensus of 12 analysts.

In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Chief Executive Koichi Nishimura said
the company missed expectations because of investment in infrastructure, not
because of the Asian currency crisis.

Shares of Solectron recently traded at 36 7/16, up 11/16 or 1.9%, on volume of
483,900 shares, compared with average daily volume of 584,100 shares. The stock
closed Tuesday at 35 3/4, up 6 or 20.2%.
-By Nancy Fonti; 201-938-5171

(END) DOW JONES NEWS 12-17-97

11:46 AM

-0- 11 46 AM EST 12-17-97
:TICKER: CMCI COMS HDCO HWP IBM JBIL SANM SLR
:SUBJECT: TLCM SEMI CA FL MS NH NY STK COMP INDG
Copyright (c) 1997 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.
Received by NewsEDGE/LAN: 12/17/97 11:45 AM



To: Caroline who wrote (2266)12/18/1997 8:51:00 AM
From: ccryder  Respond to of 6317
 
Fenton understands how the market will interpret the news about this stock and how specialists and other market insiders (goodness, not company insiders) will use the news. Fenton's interpretation of the news surrounding the company doesn't have to be factually accurate, he just has to guess what the specialists will do with the news.

For example, COMS reports inventory problem mainly with USRobotics modems, we (insiders) can sell COMS. And, oh, JBIL makes things for COMS, we can sell JBIL too, drive the price down, gather low priced inventory, then sell it back after the suckers figure out that JBIL doesn't make modems for USR. And isn't it great that JBIL promised to not blindside us (insiders) anymore so we know that they will make or only slightly beat the numbers they gave us a week before earnings came out. With the Asian flu, the suckers will think any stock that meets or slightly beats our 'estimates' is great stuff. And those 'smart' guys that stay long? We'll borrow their stock to short it.

A note: Analysts estimates aren't really 'estimates' anymore. It was in the news that the company would try to not suprise the analysts anymore.

Fenton, my hats off to you, but I think you should have given it a rest until it reached 49. Fenton has shared his market actions with us in exchange for the nearly free outlet for his commentary. Or is it manipulaton of our emotions that he is doing? No ill intended to Fenton. At least he is obvious.

Regarding the cost of new revenue, someone in a post a while back was worried that the cost of outfitting a new plant would reduce margins. What has been happening is that the expansion cost has been balanced by increased revenues from the new operations. That the company has been able to do this for TWO YEARS is just great. There is a big built in deferred margin improvement with this scheme when the expansion costs subside. The company reported that they have just started to use their line of credit to finance their expansion which tells me that things are really great. Next quarter should be fantastic. How much can JBIL grow?