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Technology Stocks : Excite [XCIT], an exciting stock to own in 1999! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TLindt who wrote (698)	12/18/1997 9:26:00 AM
From: chirodoc	Respond to of 3183

<<<<<No wonder why they call it Motley FoOL........... ..........last year the fools heavily touted coms over cisco and others. coms lost almost half of its value. although they have a good attitude (buy and hold good companies) they are not talented analysts. ..........in the last fortune article that was mentioned on this thread, the analysts talked about yahoo, amazon, cisco, excite, etc. no one touted lycos. ........i know very little about lycos except for the msft/intc relationship but it seems that xcit has better relationshiops overall with aol, ckfr, intu etc. and is closer to break even. that being said i know so little about lycos i really should not say anything!

To: TLindt who wrote (698)	12/18/1997 9:29:00 AM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3183

Morning Report Thu Dec 18 Short Or Long? Squeeze Catches Yahoo Shortsellers ...............another reason for xcit above yahoo................ By Steve Harmon Senior Investment Analyst Internet.com "Where Wall Street Meets The Web" With the kind of market capitalization to revenue multiple that would make investment guru Warren Buffett mistake it for price to earnings ratio, Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO - news) looks like it may have caught shortsellers in a squeeze. For as many know, selling a stock short means a bet that it may fall, and therefore the seller can then buy those shares cheaper and pocket the difference. The nasty part comes when a ton of investors flock into shorting one stock and then have to buy back those shares in an artificially-inflated demand market. Translation: more buyers than sellers and stocks like YHOO, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN - news) , and long-time short CyberCash (NASDAQ:CYCH - news) can ride high for months as shortsellers must buy to cover their bets, but take a beating. The numbers: Yippee Or Yow! YahooYHOOMarket cap 12-17-97 $ 2,567 1997 est. revenue$ 60.00 1997 est. EPS$ 0.11 1998 est. revenue$ 102.00 1998 est. EPS$ 0.51 Share price 12-17$ 59.56 Unique users month25 ÿÿÿÿMultiples & ValuationÿMkt cap/1997 revenue43 Mkt cap/1998 revenue25 Price-to-earnings 1997541 Price-to-earnings 1998117 vs. peer averageÿrevenue multiple20ÿÿMkt value per ÿunique monthly user$ 101.06 ÿÿin million except share price, user value & multipleÿc 1997 Mecklermediaÿ For no matter which arena you're in looking at the multiples from a traditional standpoint leaves few doubting that valuations may be frothy for a handful of Internet stocks. We estimate Yahoo could generate about $60 million revenue this year and $102 million in 1998. On an EPS basis (the trusty standby ratio) YHOO trades north of 500x for this year and 100x next. Your average garden variety tech stock trades between 10x to 30x earnings on a good day. Even second and third place navigation stocks Lycos (NASDAQ:LCOS - news) and Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT - news) get nowhere near the movement of YHOO, up more than 300% this year. Yet there may be valid reasons for YHOO's rise above the crowd, most of which is its market leader status. At 25 million unique users a month and about 50 million page views per day nothing comes close to this except AOL. Therein may be some of the answers to part of the frothiness we think YHOO enjoys. Our analysis shows YHOO trading at about $100 per unique user. Consider that to acquire a new subscriber on AOL takes about $100 or more and perhaps YHOO value may make more sense than the multiple or P/E basis. But Yahoo has no access revenues to count on, as AOL does. Pure ads and commerce. As such, we as analysts still have trouble believing that a 500x P/E or 25x revenue multiple discounted a year out makes sense. While we believe in Yahoo the company, shortsellers and true believers make for strange companions on Wall Street.