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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MCsweet who wrote (54989)	3/2/2015 8:34:06 PM
From: Mattyice	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78715

Thank you for the reply - also UFS looks really compelling at a glance, thanks for mentioning.. What do you like about it? I wouldnt say I am bullish china per se (or india for that matter), and I agree with you about a lot of your concerns... I mean I was on this board 4 years ago touting some of these same issues as a once in a generational shorting opportunity - but there seems to be a lot of fear towards many of these emerging markets and I like buying into some of that fear. I dont really trust many of the companies there either but in the aggregate I feel ok being exposed to the country and companies there growing book value over time. I currently don't have any specific chinese exposure, just own couple of ETFs... which makes me weary in its own right... i'm like what the hell am i doing and how do i manage it?! I sort of like VALE and have been wanting to buy for a month or two now but have just been sitting on my hands keep watching it head towards the grand reaper. There is also a few other Brazilian companies I like. I also think South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, some parts of europe look compelling as well... figuring out how to own it on the other hand I need some help.

To: MCsweet who wrote (54989)	3/6/2015 11:50:49 AM
From: MCsweet	Respond to of 78715

IKGH, I took some profits today at 1.80 down to 1.75. RCT and win rate for February imply to me earnings of 0.12 for Q1 2015 if March is like Jan and Feb. On a normalized win rate basis of 3%, earnings would be only $0.04, but if you take it out amortization expense it would be like $0.10. Annualize and slap an 8 PE on that and you still get a $3 stock price. This coupled with core income of 0.20+ for Q4 (I actually estimate 0.25 but others more knowledgeable estimate 0.20) plus a large potential rollback of incentive payments means I have not been that aggressive selling even as I realize this is a highly speculative stock with potential for some bad news (possibilities include bad debt expense and closing of VIP rooms, plus rolling chip turnover is low) Net net, I don't want to be Alex P. Keaton in a Family Ties episode where he is about to make a bundle on a foreign investment that is then crushed by a Typhoon, but at the same time I think the earnings will be quite good. We'll see. MC