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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph J. Clark who wrote (13571)	12/18/1997 11:00:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Joseph and all, the November btb numbers are out. I quote a few lines from Infrastructure's newsletter (I'm on a 2 week trial) and hope Carl Johnson won't mind, especially since I recommend his service. infras.com [snip] November orders (three month average) for semiconductor equipment grew another 5 percent to approach the $1.9 billion mark. The SEA's financial woes and the collapse in DRAM prices has yet to slow equipment shipments[snip] Segment October Book-to-Bill November Book-to-Bill Revised Preliminary -------- ------------------ ---------------- Front End 0.98 0.93 Test/Assembly 1.16 1.21 Total 1.02 0.99 We don't think anybody should get excited about the ratios dropping below the much exalted 1.0 level. Shipments are GROWING faster than bookings right now and this is the reason the ratio has gone below parity. [end of quote] Please reflect on the nature of the btb number. Suppose I bill (and ship) 100 and book new orders for 110. The btb is 110/100=1.1 In the next period I bill for the orders of the past period, 110, and take new orders for 115. Now btb is 1.045 (115/110) - a drop in btb, even though orders have increased from 110 to 115. The Street watches this number, but may not reflect on it this way. GM

To: Joseph J. Clark who wrote (13571)	12/18/1997 11:57:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Joseph, Here is the most probable bullish scenario, imo.(I hold amat, but expect to continue to buy to a potential low in the mid teens on a further panic due to too much money in the hands of manic depressives.) AMAT's orders do slow significantly in the next 6 months due to asia, but the backlog keeps earnings around .50 per share, each of the next two quarters. Orders pick up in the summer timeframe from asia.In the meanwhile, from the eu order growth is strong thru the year, while orders from us picks up after June, as INTC regains momentum along with other big semi's(soxx index is getting killed currently).DRAM oversupply is expected to be gone by end of 1998. In the fall, Japan's economic stimulus package finally takes hold. Growth hits 5%. AMAT's stock trades in a range btween 25-40 until May when it becomes clear that asia has stabilized and backlog starts growing again. Earnings for year come to .50,.50,.40,.40= 1.80. Next year is then expected to accelerate to .50,.54.,.60,.70=2.35. Stock hits 45 in Oct98. Stock hits pricey levels in 1999 up to 75, but acceleration continues into 2000 as amat approaches a quarter of 1.00 and a share price of 100. A million things can go wrong. Gene