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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3941)	12/18/1997 11:26:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Teri, November equipment btb...GM exchange2000.com

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (3941)	12/18/1997 3:14:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 10921

Teri, >Re: "With the funds jumping on board so quickly this time..." I hate to be difficult, but I think we could certainly debate the question of whether they are early or LATE. My current vote is that they're late. Further, the fact that 389 possibly ill-informed fund managers are holding AMAT at this time isn't the kind of evidence that gets me all fired up to buy a stock. I'm looking for fundamental, foundational reasons, as in, I want to understand the reasons chip makers will invest in CapEx heavily (enough to fuel growth for AMAT et al) in this over-capacitied environment. I don't ask for much, do I -g-? Bottom line for me is: DRAM prices stink, SE Asia isn't well (minimal), we have too much capacity, and demand could be better. I'm on the sidelines (mostly) for now wanting more positive fundamentals. However, I do appreciate hearing your and the thread's views on all of this. Regards, Teri PS. My daughter may decide she wants to go to Harvard; accordingly, I can't be totally stupid. :-) (I can at least try.)< I relate what we IBD subscribers see in the paper, what the analyst are saying on CNBC, and what the DW chart said last year as to the buying actions of the funds. This week, Monday, when amat hit a low of $25.25 the funds had alread increased the number of funds to a total of 389 exceeding the maximum of funds owning of 377 I believe at the low in 1996. On Oct. 1997 when I bought at $26.875 presplit the funds at that time had not jumped on board if I recall correctly. As of the end of Tuesdays closing the DW Semi chart is at its second lowest percentile, at 14.50%, since February 1995. The previous low was at 12% in July, 1996. I am sure you recall that at that time the earnings were high but the price was low and vis a vis. IMO, as per my previous post, how amat will perform will be what spin Wall Street wants to place on the released BTB numbers. We will see in the next few weeks. Big Buck, Kumar and Tito, what are your thoughts since you have contacts closer to amat than we do? Guess I am a little cynical! Paul V.