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Biotech / Medical : NNVC Keeping it real board for pro and con discussions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)	3/6/2015 3:00:13 PM
From: Rawnoc	Respond to of 326

No need to cherry pick your NNVC posts -- every single one that I find shows the stock price COLLAPSED afterwards. Not sure why you are obsessed over one stock pick I made 5 years ago especially when it rallied over 1,400%. Do you have ANY posts on NNVC where the stock showed any gain whatsoever after you posted? Do you even know what it feels like not to have annihilating losses never mind huge gains?

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)	3/6/2015 3:01:41 PM
From: Rawnoc	Respond to of 326

I have never been wrong when warning about a biowreck. And you? Have you ever been right on NNVC -- even once? Just once? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)	3/6/2015 6:07:27 PM
From: Rawnoc	Respond to of 326

BONIUK IS REGISTERED TO DUMP SHARES: otcmarkets.com

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)	3/9/2015 6:54:50 PM
From: Rawnoc	Respond to of 326

Updated NNVC chart: pbs.twimg.com

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)	3/21/2015 12:03:44 AM
From: Rawnoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 326

Updated NNVC chart: pbs.twimg.com

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)	3/26/2015 12:26:40 AM
From: Rawnoc	Respond to of 326

Seymour confirms USAMRIID Ebolacide2 testing stalled and basically over. Email thread with Seymour from another board On Mar 25, 2015, at 2:56 PM, Bob Question: Sir, Despite all the reports about Africa shutting down the Ebola outbreak it seems to me (that) the Army will continue the testing using the cides you submitted until the end of this phase, at least. Then they will make a determination as what cides to move forward on. Correct? Seymour: We have to decide if WE want to move on. We need to stay laser focussed on FluCide. My infectious disease colleague left Africa out of disgust at the bureaucratic delays. Liberia has only had 1 case in the past few weeks. He also said that even his friend doing the convalescent serum study can't find enough patients. It certainly seems that the window of opportunity has slammed shut. We started the project in September when the WHO predicted 1.2M cases by January. We were ready to go 90 days later but the BSL-4 lab wasn't ready for us. It seems as if the U.S. has thrown its support behind the Tekmira drug. It's going to be very interesting to see how that plays out. =================== Once again, poor NNVC, not THEIR fault that this opportunity was lost. Amazing how these things just keep happening to such a well managed, strategically focused and communicative company. This was probably why they tanked today. But NOW they are laser focused on Flucide, so no worries.

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)	4/9/2015 4:41:13 PM
From: Rawnoc	1 Recommendation Recommended By NewMoney_812 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 326

This board is growing more in value almost literally by the minute in inverse correlation to the imploding stock price. Anybody smart enough to short this obvious trash has made untold millions especially on put options.

To: Puffer1 who wrote (128)

4/17/2015 11:52:06 AM

From: Rawnoc

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 326

Puffer calls for $350 per share...

JG36	Friday, 04/17/15 11:46:58 AM
Re: None
Post # of 110135

Puffer's $350 a share prediction.

Oh hell, I was bored, so I looked, and this is what I found.

First, some context. I was explaining why you might buy a stock that you think has much worse than 50% odds of succeeding. At the time NNVC was going for about 0.50 a share, pre-split (not very different from what it is now). I pointed out that if you think NNVC will be worth at least $5 a share after FDA approval of Flucide then it makes sense to buy at 0.50 so long as you think the odds of success are significantly better than 10%. That $5 number was merely a "for instance", not a prediction. Obviously if you think the stock price will be much higher than $5 then you'd be willing to buy at 0.50 with much worse than 10% odds of success. But Puffer misinterpreted my $5 number as a prediction, and here was his response:

siliconinvestor.com

Quote:$5 if works in humans? That would be a market cap of only $750M... you would be off by a factor of about 20. The market for an effective flu drug is estimated at 3 to 7B annually. (Tamiflu did about $3B in '09). Take the low number and slap a modest 5X sales on it and you get $15B in market cap for the one drug. That allows nothing for the instant upward revaluation of their entire portfolio once the first drug is approved, not to mention sales of those drugs.

Obviously Puffer believed $5 to be too low by at least a factor of 20, i.e., he considered a reasonable price for NNVC stock after FDA approval of Flucide to be $100 a share, $350 post reverse split.

BTW, I still consider the odds of NNVC succeeding to be well south of 50%. And I see no reason to believe that NNVC will necessarily be worth 5x sales, when many profitable businesses are worth a lot less than that.