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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (189612)	3/13/2015 8:42:10 PM
From: JimisJim	1 Recommendation Recommended By isopatch Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 206093

Ed, two things: 1: I find IEA'a data (referenced in my previous posts) much more reliable and accurate than EIA's, plus IEA takes a global perspective overall. 2: The article you posted doesn't take the "fracklogs" from the 3 major US areas, nor oil in storage into acct. -- that oil in fracklog or storage can be brought to market any time and will take significant time to work off all by itself. IOW: The Energy Economist is only looking at one of the major factors: production, and ignores flat demand growth, as well as storage implications. One must look at the total picture, not just one aspect of it.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (189612)	3/14/2015 8:22:55 AM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 206093

Truth is Ed the model here described "Here's why. The model is driven by rig count with several built-in assumptions. The most important are (1) the lag between the time a rig appears in the rig count and the well is completed and connected to the gathering system; (2) the ratio between rigs running and wells completed; (3) the decline rate of wells currently producing; and (4) the production of the well in its first full month online." These Assumptions as prognosticating tools are subject to HUP. Thus the correlations with which new prognostications are made, are subject to HUP. One better be careful with output from systems that have not been tested under HUP. Mathematical inequalities using perceived complimentary variables requires that HUP governs/or acts on the system. In quantum mechanics, the uncertainty principle, also known as Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, is any of a variety of mathematical inequalities asserting a fundamental limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle known as complementary variables, such as position x and momentum p, can be known simultaneously en.wikipedia.org