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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (28280)	12/20/1997 10:09:00 PM
From: sepku	Respond to of 61433

>>>Style, You may be right about this stock. I wonder how much LU will pay?<<< I never thought that LU might purchase ASND. >>>My market data is fresh as a daisy. I simply gave you both 1996 and 1997 numbers from a reputable research firm that does more than simply call the vendors and ask them how much business they do.<<< Ok, I went back to your post and saw that you did mention the 1997 numbers as referenced from Vertical. However, I also noted that it refers to the "ATM market", which is very vague...the ATM market as a whole, or any specific niche of an ATM market? >>> If you go to that report you'll note that the numbers you describe are focused on the ISP businesses only and fail to take into account IXC, LEC, Enterprise, and Access.<<< Are you talking about the report I referenced, or the one you referenced? In the Infonetics report, the ATM market mentioned is specifically the internet ATM market. Apparently you are talking about the entire ATM market as a whole. Now I'm beginning to see why you have the opinions that you do, regarding ASND vs CSCO. I have been discussing ASND vs CSCO relationship in the only two areas where it matters (currently): Internet/telco networking. Any other domains are not ASND's forte, and therefore not relevent. That's a whole other case for CSCO vs its chief competitors in those segments. >>>In the ATM space ISP ATM sales only account for about 10% of all equipment sales. Although ASND lost only a small amount of market share in the ISP ATM space (21.7% in 96 to 19.2% in 97), they have no presence in any other sector leaving them at only a 3.9% share for the entire ATM WAN market. Not even a serious competitor.<<< I'm inferring that this is not a direct quote from the Vertical report. This information is beginning to look like a mess...could you link to the report or paste it for my perusal? I want to see all the figures laid out in an orderly fashion against the Infonetics numbers and any other available. >>>You did the same thing in the Frame Relay market > you focused only on the ISP piece<<< Like I said above, I'm focusing only on the areas that are relevent. Areas where ASND does not compete has nothing to do with ASND vs CSCO. Whether CSCO gains market share in other segments at the expense of other rivals, of course has a significant effect on the macro outlook of the entire niche. However, this is not relevent to ASND. You're missing the point. ASND rules its market segments, even where CSCO has been attempting to make inroads. Those are the figures I provided, concerning which you have had no comment, and instead choose to raise issues over which ASND has no interest. Looks like dodging to me...or obstinance. >>>Any way you cut it ASND is losing the war. They're losing the battle in their target markets.<<< The Infonetics report says otherwise. The internet/telco markets are ASND's markets...it's CSCO who is targeting them -- quite impotently, thus far, I might add. Leveraging themselves through price and other incentives does not make up for the lack of decent products. >>>They're choking on the aquistion of CSCC<<< Oh really? Well you show me your source(s) and I'll link you to mine. Perhaps you missed the following synopsis from DLJ: Message 2940071. Until you provide me with a superior source of information regarding the ASND/CSCC merger, I think I'll go with the DLJ report. ;o) Basically, all indications are that the synergies between ASND and CSCC are beginning to appear (details in synopsis). Immediately following the merger, many CSCC employees were pissed about the terms and there was attrition. For example, some CSCC engineers quit and left to other networkers, including CSCO. Since then, ASND has ramped up its recruitment of brains and business at CSCC is accelerating. It is evident that you are far from understanding ASND's business and the developments over the past several months if you are not aware that the only reason ASND is not in serious trouble, is thanks to its aquisition of CSCC. Otherwise, the software problems with the TNT combined with the lack of a 56K standard, would have decimated the company's sales -- causing its earnings to be worse than what COMS saw this last Q. Thanks to CSCC's business thriving ever since the merger, ASND has dulled some of the impact on revenues that falling RA prices and ISP delays on 56K upgrades, would have surely caused. Remember, I'm discussing ASND vs CSCO, not CSCO vs "the rest". Style Pts.