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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (16825)	3/17/2015 1:18:55 PM
From: Fintas	2 Recommendations Recommended By Davy Crockett The Ox Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

OX. I put up a post on the POINT and Figure board with the BP OIL and BP OIL tech indicators that support your view. Fintas

To: The Ox who wrote (16825)	3/17/2015 3:06:41 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 33421

Over the last 2 days in which oil has been down both rig and esv have been more up than down. I think it reflects a bottoming process. Bob

To: The Ox who wrote (16825)	3/17/2015 5:46:50 PM
From: isopatch	6 Recommendations Recommended By Davy Crockett John Pitera roguedolphin sixty2nds The Ox and 1 more member Respond to of 33421

Nice post. Well supported by your charts. A key longer term fundamental factor worth keeping an eye on is further pressure on prices due to debt liquidation. Last year, and early this year, we saw it in the form of margin liquidation feeding on itself as spot oil & futures plunged month after month. Phase two of these down cycles usually shifts to the oil & gas companies themselves. My wag, is we've entered that process. The number and extent of over leveraged companies ballooned more than usual, in this particular cycle, due to years of artificially low interest rates. So, it's not surprising we're seeing so many of them unable to satisfy the conditions of debt covenants they signed onto during the long upward portion of the cycle. Based on what's happened in past cycles? This process is still in it's early stages, and looks like it's going to be bigger than almost any prior cycle I've been through since 1973-76. So, although we should be getting ST rallies, from time to time, that may be very profitable for nimble traders? I'm not confident we've seen the final cyclical low print oil, natural gas, or energy equities. One of the flashing red lights that the magnitude of company financial distress is likely to be bigger than the average down cycle comes from the higher volume in oil & gas equipment auctions. That can, in turn, feed back into new lows (for this cycle) in oil and gas. (Excerpt below cites a, good, bell weather, news factoid and puts it in context) Have to log off for a bit. Hope to be back later. If not, then tomorrow. Best regards, Iso On March 25, Ritchie Bros., the world's largest industrial auctioneer, will conduct a massive multi-million dollar crane and transportation auction for Energy Transportation in Casper, Wyoming. Energy Transportation is the largest supplier of fully operated and maintained crane services, specialized rigging, and heavy haul transportation in the state of Wyoming. More than 750 items will be sold in the one-owner unreserved public auction, including 14 rough terrain cranes (ranging from 20 – 150 tons), seven all terrain cranes (225 – 600 tons), seven hydraulic truck cranes (75 – 110 tons), six crawler cranes (230 – 660 tons), related rigging equipment, as well as heavy-spec trucks, trailers and other equipment. A special financing offer is available for this auction through Ritchie Bros. Financial Services, with rates as low as 3.95% and no payments for 90 days. "We've got a special financing offer in place for this auction only, so buyers can bid with the power of cash and finance their purchases at great low rates" Watch this auction as your tell for global expectations for the energy complex * * * As Deutsche Bank warned previously, if oil prices stay low for a while... "we would expect to see 1/3rd of US energy Bs/CCCs to restructure, which would imply a 15% default rate for overall US HY energy, and a 2.5% contribution to the broad US HY default rate.... A shock of that magnitude could be sufficient to trigger a broader HY market default cycle, if materialized. " * * * With rates set to rise - and with them a tightening of financial conditions which will reduce further the efficiency of carry trades to fund spec HY plays, the window for these HY Energy names is closing fast.> zerohedge.com

To: The Ox who wrote (16825)	3/18/2015 2:42:12 AM
From: John Pitera	6 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar Davy Crockett isopatch roguedolphin sixty2nds and 1 more member Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Ox. The fact that we don't have any media coverage of the decline in crude makes me think we may see a 39 handle on in by Friday or next week. and then see crude look to retest the 34,00 low of Dec 21 2008 The USD. Had a potential to have an medium term top to longer term top when the $USD registered it a reading of $100.71 yesterday. It is super over extended over it's 200 DMA and 50 WMA. The Financial Markets are settting us up for a significantly profound period of major instability between now and Sept 28th. 2015. THIS COMing Friday may prove to increase volatilly and instability by a remarkable amount. John