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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (4231)	12/18/1997 10:56:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Yes, this is what I like, "wakeup calls" from snoozing analysts. As usual, this analyst is about 180% out of phase. If he is seeing that there will be substantial economic or corporate earnings issues, the market tesnds to respond substantially before that happens. Look at what has already happened in the market and how the market is in the doldrums right now as far as a bullish uptrend goes. The market has been already aware of the moderating economy. Several quarters of earnings warnings and disappointments through this year was sort of a clue. I cannot imagine what he would of said if we endured lets say a 25% or 30% correction in the market with many individuals starting to file for bankruptcy: "Alert...alert! I see there will be a market correction of significant proportions. I advise my followers to sell their stock and exit the market.". Like Chris, I do think it is very prudent to "think saftey". This market has found a temporary bottom, and top. There is still downside potential to this market now that there have been three disappointments with the market not making above 8000 and a continuing market consolidation. But at this point, I would not be concerned with what some analyst is saying about people's spending habits next year from a look at his crystal ball...I mean "learned" and "insightful" economic analysis, like this really means anything to us. For instance, I can tell with great certainty that there will be many companies reporting substantial losses next year. I also can say with an equal degree of certainty that there will be many companies reporting large profits. So what?? Does this qualify me for the next Nobel Prize in Economics?? Now, even if I knew one would end up outweighing the other, what effect will this have on the market and when?? Does this mean there will be no possability for profits? All we need is some of the speculative exhuberance we have seen in the past in order for the market to levetate itself off of the ground defying gravity like those Road Runner cartoons with the coyote. This is all a trader needs to make allot of $$. For that matter, the market has the capability to discount this before the further slowing of the economy comes more fully into the picture, which will create more opportunity in the future. For that matter, there is money to be made in most any market. People spend, go broke, and save. Markets go up, down, and sideways. So goes life. So take you pick. Just do not be on the wrong side of the market, and be on the right side of your stock picks. Simple enough, eh? :) Interesting article, Chris, to see what the analysts are pontificating to their herd of sheep...I mean those "independant" and "wise" followers of the analyst who have helped the rest of us make money. Bless their souls! Especially the analysts! The existence of analysts guarentee we will have people ready to sell our shares to when we want to exit and at other times people who will be more than willing to sell us their shares at a good price when we want to enter the market. Still, I do agree that at least for the time being it will play to be conservative in this market. Am I giving anyone the impression that I do not place much value in analysts? Bob Graham