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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (67948)3/20/2015 11:37:44 PM
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Donald Wennerstrom

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Don, it seems to me that bookings and billings may never exceed the numbers seen at previous market peaks until demand rapidly outstrips supply in a truly overheated economy.

This is especially true when you take into account that the cost of producing chips continues to fall.

I went back and looked at a GDP table for the periods where bookings and billings were higher than they have been for the last 24 months.

multpl.com

While the Fed should get credit for helping us to avoid a full on depression they are clearly unable to light a real fire under the economy in this highly regulated era. This in addition to a lack of incentives for small businesses to expand will keep the economy from further GDP growth during this cycle.

That of course is only part of the explanation for why we can see more chips than ever being sold but not have a higher number in either booking or billing than what was seen in higher growth times.

Of course that is only part of the story because of cheaper labor overseas, shrinking chip sizes allowing more chips to be places on the same amount of silicon, automation, robotics I would expect this trend to continue.

JMHO, RtS